why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Disney is investing $1 billion in OpenAI and licensing IP to Sora
“Disney, which is investing one billion dollars in OpenAI and is going to license their characters for use in Sora.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peebles: Sora is the only video model reliably handling complex physics
“This model is a huge leap forward in terms of physics IQ. So pretty much all past video generation models really struggled with prompts that, you know, involve like backflips, gymnastics routines, et cetera. And this is really the only model that exists today,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Creators will complain Sora does not feature their IP enough
“I can totally imagine a world where our problem in a year or six months or maybe even less is not that people don't want their cameos or their characters appearing, but they think we are not fairly having their characters or cameo appearing often enough.”
Disclosure
Cuban: I Mandated Cost Plus Watermarks on My OpenAI Sora Clones
“I made a condition so that at the end of every video that used my likeness, you had the, it showed the logo for Cost Plus Drugs. So smart. So smart. And it's been used like hundreds of thousands of times, and I know we've seen a bump as a result.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Disney's three-year Sora deal includes over 200 characters and Disney+ streaming
“Disney's three year licensing deal Will let users generate videos using Sora of more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar characters. A curated selection of these short videos will be available to stream on Disney+.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI knows how to build a GPT-4 equivalent for video
“It was really not until GPT-IV where these text models started providing real value for people, and we know how to go make the GPT-IV equivalent of video models, and we will do that, and then a lot of these things that are currently annoying, like doors, or, y…”
Disclosure
Altman shifts daily focus to acquiring compute rather than internal allocation
“You know, my real answer is I've entirely changed my focus of how I spend my days to just go get more compute rather than have to make the computer allocation decisions.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peebles: 70% of Sora users are creating content post-launch
“One metric that we're really proud of with this launch so far is that 70% of our users are actually creating content, even to this day, you know, a week and a half after launch.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peebles: Video AI progressed from GPT-1 to GPT-3.5 equivalent in 18 months
“GPT-ONE really was Sora-ONE for this modality. And the progress we've made kind of in the last 18 months getting to this 3.5 moment, right, is really compressed compared to how long it took to go from GPT-ONE to 3.5 in the language domain.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Coogan: OpenAI will roll video generation into ChatGPT
“Obviously, this is not the end of video creation for OpenAI. This will be rolled into ChatGPT, I imagine.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Millions of people have created content on Sora
“Millions of people have made content on the app.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Group chat memes are Sora's most common use case
“Absolutely. I would say that the most common use case is something like that. You know, like memes on group chats is a real killer use case.”
Disclosure
Altman: Sora team made feed AI-only despite my initial pushback
“One design decision the team made that I thought was really great, and I was actually pushing them in a different direction earlier on, and then I decided they were totally right, and I thanked them and dropped it, was the fact that the feed is AI only.
And no…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peebles: Sora is approaching nearly two million weekly active users
“And so, you know, we're closing in on close to like two million weekly active users.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: OpenAI's Sora Fell from #1 to #21 in App Store Charts
“Sora was, I think, number one in the charts at that point. It's now 21.”
Disclosure
Peebles: Sora creator monetization model updates are coming in weeks
“We're actively working on the team right now coming up with like the right monetization model here to get this rolled out. But it's really important to us, right? That our creators on the platform are rewarded and that there are clear, you know, financial ince…”