The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vollset predicts Anthropic will inevitably add advertisements to Claude
“Not only are they going to do it, but so is Claude. I guarantee it. You know, they might figure out something clever and do the thing, but like, there's no, there's just not a universe unless Claude get bought by Apple or something. That, that Claude aren't go…”
Taber: Commercial office real estate will never recover
“I believe that commercial office space, real estate will never recover.”
Ries: Vibe coding will inevitably cause a massive mission-critical disaster
“It's only a matter of time before someone vibe codes their way into a massive mission critical disaster. When they deploy code they think they understand, but they don't.”
Coburn: 45% of US Workers Will Be Freelancers by 2027
“We're going to be up to 45% of the workers in this country are going to be freelancers by the year twenty-twenty-seven.”
Open-Source AI Model Usage Will Double to 40% by Late 2026
“My fifth prediction is that open source AI models Will double in global usage driven by cost control and platform risk. So as of now, a working paper summarized in IT Pro says closed models are about 80% of overall usage, implying that open is about 20%, and I…”
Bitcoin Will Hit a New All-Time High of $160,000 in 2026
“My eighth prediction is that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of a 160,000 dollars in 26. And I think the price will range from about a 100,000 to a 160,000 throughout the year.”
Walling: Twitter will change ownership in the near future
“Twitter changes hands in 2024 question mark. No, it did not. That is a fail, but I think it will be true here coming up.”
Vollset predicts Bluesky will fail to gain lasting traction within three years
“No. I think it's just a hissy fit to a degree. Like, and I feel like, you know, it's been that, like there's been threads was kind of the same.”
Osborn predicts Bluesky will grow and achieve lasting traction within three years
“I would bet so. Like I could be wrong, but it feels like in terms of the herd instinct of folks and the herd instinct of tech press and whatnot, there's more now than there was when Mastodon and Threads and everything else launched a few years ago, including B…”
Walling: AI will not eliminate the need for software developers by 2034
“They were talking about learning to code, and how everyone's going to be able to code because of ChatGPT, and developers won't be needed anymore, and I just don't believe that's the case at all. I mean, we've seen the same thing with no code. It's like, you ca…”
Vollset: A Shopify plugin company will not IPO as a billion-dollar business
“I sort of somehow doubt that a Shopify plugin will become, will IPO as a billion dollar business.”
Volset: The Fed Will Likely Start Buying Corporate Equities
“I think it'll get even, I think it most likely it'll get to the point where now the Fed's buying equities of companies just to prop things up.”