why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Vollset: Pre-launch YC companies raise at $12M to $20M pre-money
“Last I heard now, pre-product launch on demo day, it's like 12 to twenty million pre.”
Assertion Contradicted
Vollset: Public SaaS Price-to-Revenue Multiples Are Below Industrials
“Despite growing significantly faster and being, you know, significantly higher profits, the sort of price to revenue multiples of SaaS companies is actually less than industrials now”
Prediction Held up
Vollset: Stock market will not be worse off by June 2023
“I don't think the stock market will be worse off.”
Prediction Held up
Vollset: Clubhouse will survive at least 18 months due to VC funding
“18 months. That's a lifetime. I still think they're around. They raised so much money. I mean, I think they raised, didn't they raise like a hundred million or something insane? So I still think they're, they'll be around. Yeah, I do.”
Assertion Partly supported
Vollset: About 40% of venture capital funds fail to return capital
“There's a good number that, that returned less than one X. It's probably 40% of funds. You don't even get your money back. That's pretty common.”
Prediction Held up
Vollset: SPACs Will Become an Increasingly Popular Path to Going Public
“My view is that that's sort of a symptom of, like, how complicated and how long it's taking for all these companies to go public. And so I think we'll start to see more and more of that trend.”
Assertion Supported
Vollset: Zoom went public with more cash than its total VC raised
“I mean, like, you even see this in some of the, like, go public companies, like Zoom, and I think Zoom actually is the sort of poster boy for this, you know, the Zoom, I think they went public with more money in the bank than they raised.”
Assertion Supported
Vollset: Customer.io is generating $22 million in ARR
“I think he's doing, he's open about his numbers. I think he's doing twenty-two million ARR right now.”