Dec 22, 2020 · 31m · startups-for-the-rest-of-us
Episode 528 | 2021 Predictions from Rob and Mike
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Startups for the Rest of Us, Rob Walling and Mike Taber review the accuracy of their past forecasts before sharing their top predictions for 2021 across tech regulation, startup financing, remote work, virtual reality, and post-pandemic recovery.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Rob holds 55.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Rob as informed peer 5.7 Guest teaching 1.2 Guest disagreement 2.2 Rob pushing back 2.7
speaking balance: gold is Rob, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:25 Mike argues Amazon data usage is monopoly abuse
Mike directly rejects Rob's framing by arguing that Amazon's direct visibility into competitor platform sales data constitutes monopolistic platform abuse.
Hardest push from Rob ▶ 14:49 Rob challenges classification of Amazon as a monopolyRob refuses Mike's classification of Amazon under an antitrust umbrella, drawing a technical legal line between anti-competitive practices and true market dominance.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 4:13 Rob corrects Mike's SEC settlement timelineRob checks live reporting from the New York Times to demonstrate that Elon Musk stepped down in September 2018, disproving Mike's claim that it occurred in 2019.
Rob holds their own ▶ 9:40 Rob details email marketing history and privacy shiftsRob demonstrates comprehensive industry expertise by charting the timeline of email automation platforms and explaining how pixel blockers will alter marketing mechanics.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Rob as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Rob pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reviewing and Scoring 2019 Tech Predictions | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | Rob fact-checks Mike's recollection of Elon Musk's SEC settlement date by citing a September 2018 NYTimes article. Mike mildly defends his scoring before conceding the timeline was prior to their original recording. | |
| Predictions on Commercial Real Estate and Email Marketing | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Rob showcases deep domain expertise in SaaS marketing, detailing the evolution of email automation from Constant Contact to Drip and the emerging privacy backlash from apps like Hey.com. Mike and Rob are collaborative throughout. | |
| Big Tech Antitrust Regulation and Event Adjustments | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | Rob firmly pushes back on Mike's big tech prediction by distinguishing illegal monopoly status from general anti-competitive white-labeling practices at Amazon. Mike challenges this distinction, arguing platform data visibility represents monopolistic abuse. | |
| Medical Nanotechnology Breakthroughs and Startup Funding Trends | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Rob outlines the de-stigmatization of funding in the bootstrapped SaaS world, detailing non-venture options like TinySeed and revenue-based financing. Mike readily agrees with no friction. | |
| The MCU Trajectory and Mainstream Virtual Reality | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | Rob counters Mike's claim that Marvel will fail with lesser-known characters by pointing out that Iron Man and Captain America were also historically second-tier before their films. Mike jokingly accuses Rob of stealing a prediction from the chat before they discuss VR hardware. | |
| Extraterrestrial Life Proof and Post-Pandemic Recovery | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | Mike offers an off-the-wall prediction about extraterrestrial life proof, while Rob predicts an accelerated post-pandemic return to normalcy. Mike humorously pushes back that Rob is projecting his extroverted desires. |
Statements from this episode (11)
Taber: Commercial office real estate will never recover
“I believe that commercial office space, real estate will never recover.”
Walling: Privacy concerns will revert email marketing to spray-and-pray
“My first prediction is that privacy concerns will continue to transform email marketing back to what it used to be, which was basically spray and pray.”
Taber: Regulators will attempt to break up Big Tech, likely targeting Facebook
“There's going to be a over attempt by a government and I'm going to, you know, kind of lump a couple of them together, like the United States, either the United States federal government, the European union, or even maybe even, I doubt a state government would…”
Taber: Governments will pass new legislation cracking down on gig economy in 2021
“Governments are going to actively crack down on the gig economy and essentially people who are doing side jobs or they're stringing together multiple side jobs in order to either make a living or make extra money on the side, those type of people I think the g…”
Walling: Google, Facebook, and Apple are monopolies, but Amazon is not
“My opinion is Google, Facebook, and Apple are monopolies. Amazon is not a monopoly in anything. Like, every big major thing they have, maybe Kindle is the only one I can think of.”
Taber predicts major 2021 breakthrough in medical nanotechnology implants
“My third prediction is related to healthcare, and I think there's gonna be a major breakthrough in nanotechnology. So, obviously, there's been a lot of, you know, advances with the COVID vaccine, but I think that this is gonna get to the point where it could b…”
Walling: Startup financing is no longer binary between bootstrapping and VC
“There's all, it's not binary anymore. Bootstrap versus venture. It's I can bootstrap. I can do one round. I can take money from tiny seed. I can take money from Indie.bc. I can do revenue based financing if I get to the point where that makes sense, or I can t…”
Taber: Marvel Cinematic Universe popularity will fall off a cliff
“Specifically, I think that the Marvel Cinematic Universe is going to
The following is going to somewhat fall off a cliff.”
Walling: Virtual reality will become mainstream in 2021
“My next prediction, fourth prediction is that VR will become mainstream.”
Taber predicts definitive proof of extraterrestrial life will be discovered
“My fifth and final prediction here is that we will discover definitive proof of extraterrestrial life. I don't know what exact form that's going to take, whether it's going to be Mars or some comment or, you know, an asteroid going by, but that's the predictio…”
Walling: Post-pandemic return to normal will happen faster than expected
“My fifth and final prediction is that in terms of the world and COVID, everyone's predicting, oh, it's like middle of the year and then not to the end of the year. And some, I've heard people say like, it's gonna be five years, like till everyone feels back to…”