The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Shipper predicts OpenAI and Anthropic launch agent app stores within a year
“And I bet you within a year the opening eyes in the anthropics of the world will have app stores for apps that are built specifically to be used inside of these services. Maybe even cursor too. I don't have any insight on any of this.”
Fully autonomous AI developer tools will build entire apps within two years
“Like Devin's trying to create that right now where like I could just give them this idea for an app and then I could go eat pizza and come back and It's just done after many iterations. And so that is like the full, that's where I think this is ultimately goin…”
Calacanis: Crypto market downturn will trigger hundreds of lawsuits
“And I think this stress test is gonna result in countless And I mean countless lawsuits. Hundreds of lawsuits.”
Goldberg: STEPN sneakers will lose value without a burning mechanism
“Steppen has this Runaway sneaker breeding problem because there's no burn mechanism in place for getting rid of all of the excess sneakers. Like people are minting and minting and minting. And so eventually they're all going to become worthless, or you're goin…”
Ohanian: Bored Ape owners will borrow against NFTs and never sell
“It is inevitable and on the order of months and lots of years, if not months for all those Bored Ape owners, To never have to actually sell.”
Content marketing pipelines will soon be fully automated end-to-end
“You know, end to end is coming. Like eventually this is going to be like fully automated where you enter your URL, it's finding the keywords, it's creating cross platform content, and that's just publishing it for you. So that's definitely in the future.”
Isenberg: AI search engines like ChatGPT will embed interactive tools
“My prediction is tools will be embedded within a lot of these platforms.
So
Right now when you use perplexity or use ChatGPT, really what you're getting back is mostly texts. You know, sometimes you're getting some links or some images and over time what you'r…”
Rogenmoser: AI tools will connect multiple applications to perform complex workflows
“I think you're gonna see more tools that, that do work for you, and not just, like, generate text, but, like, you know, the interface would be more natural language on the front end where you're telling an app to do something, and then now, you know, it's goin…”
Rief: MrBeast's spin-off ventures will surpass $1B in cumulative value
“I think the cumulative enterprise value of what he creates will be well above a billion dollars.”
Wolfe predicts the digitization of human scent and machine olfaction
“The digitization of human scent is coming.
Shazam for smell.
The ability to identify a single molecule in a room is coming.
The ability, not only a single molecule that has meaning to you.
I mean, literally a molecule, a structure actually conveys to you know,…”
Isenberg: Meta stock will outperform over the next one to three years
“And I feel like, I don't know, a year, two, three years from now, like, I feel like they're gonna ship some stuff, and some of it's gonna work. So I'm a, I think I think the stock will outperform. That's what I think.”
Greg Isenberg: AI Agents Will Soon Have Wallets to Execute Autonomous Transactions
“Well, we're moving into a future where agents are going to have wallets. They're going to have email addresses. And assuming that's true, and I think, you know, there's a good chance that that happen is happening happens because it's already starting to happen…”
Multi-step AI video editing workflows will soon be baked into Sora
“I do think that, like, for everything I laid out, it's important for now, but it's gonna be baked into Sora's kind of suite, where you can edit clips, you can kind of double tap into this, and this entire process is gonna get, like, a lot faster and a lot chea…”
Isenberg predicts Cursor will eventually ship built-in stock agents
“In the future, you would think that a lot of these like agents, so to speak, would come like stock with cursor.”
Isenberg: A 10-person billion-dollar company is probably being built right now
“I think the 10 person, one billion dollar company is probably coming you know, sooner than that. Well, you know, it's probably being built right now.”
AI builders like Lovable and Cursor will adopt task-based UIs
“And the lovables and bolts and curses of the world are probably going to introduce a to-do list task-based UI in the future because it just kind of, it makes a lot of sense.”
Brown: AI agents will assemble apps using UI component libraries
“And I think eventually AI agents will have access to component libraries like this, so they'll be able to just select, ah, really cool components like this and place them on your web apps, your mobile apps, ah, and things like that.”
API access will let marketers generate 100 ad variants in five minutes
“And when the API becomes generally available, this is going to be trivial. It's literally going to be like, This is your inspiration or like reference ad. These are all the different audiences, just like boom, boom, boom, smash them out and you'll have a hundr…”
Isenberg: OpenAI Operator will eventually integrate native voice capabilities
“Yeah, I think I mean, it's only a matter of time, by the way, before operator adds voice anyways. They won't have to stitch it together with other voice agents.”
Cursor will support reading web views by the end of 2025
“My prediction is by the end of the year it will, but Cursor doesn't see your web view, and so you need to give it all of the information that you see, and the more correct information you give it, the better.”
Ras Mike: AI Coding Platforms Will Add Direct BaaS and Stripe Integrations
“So they're going to have templates and integrations. So integrations with like these backend as a services, and then an integration directly with Stripe. So setting up payments, few prompts, setting up authentication, whatever, few prompts.”
Nickson predicts fully AI-generated streamers and influencers by late 2023
“Obviously by the end of the year, we're going to have fully AI generated streamers, influencers, et cetera.”
Postma: Instagram and TikTok Will Introduce Text-Prompted AI Face Editors
“I think what Lanza is eventually gonna do, but I'm pretty sure Instagram or TikTok is gonna go there. It's like, you will have your own editor of your own face, where you can just type in what you want to see right now, and it just outputs the photos for you. …”
Tossell: AI will automate end-to-end ad copy, imagery, and performance optimization
“You could even have ads being optimized, like AI could be writing the copy and showing and generating image and then all of a sudden it'll swap and change a few things and it'll see what that CTI was much better. Let's go with this one. And then they just opti…”
Tossell: AI verification systems will detect fake videos
“I think we're going to be able to tell, like there'll be a system that you can plug in and say, tell me if this video is fake and it'll say fake or whatever.”
Senra: AI translation platforms will automatically localize podcast audio by language
“If you look at what 11 Labs is doing, what Spotify is doing, what YouTube's doing, My calculation was way off because it's not just English speaking people at the platform level. They're going to, you're going to be in Brazil. You're going to love founders. It…”
St. Pierre predicts Midjourney v7 will enable model personalization by default
“Personalization is something everybody should do. And it's probably going to be default with the seven.”
Isenberg: OpenAI Codex Sites will soon support custom domains
“You'll notice that it's this crazy URL, and that's a downside of Codex sites at the moment. I think this is going to change, that's my prediction, it's going to change hopefully soon, where you're going to be able to have custom domains”