The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,218 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Isenberg: Current LLMs will beat human beings on 95% of tasks
“Maybe this is obvious, but artificial intelligence is smarter than human beings. We're at a stage where human beings versus the current LLNs are gonna lose on 95% of tasks.”
Isenberg: Hugging Face Is Currently Seeking a $13 Billion Acquisition
“I think they're trying to get acquired right now at thirteen billion dollars.”
Miller: Frontier AI models can now handle vague, open-ended autonomous prompts
“And seeing how Fable five and GPT 5.6 and that level model is reacting to that vague flavor of prompt. Like you could, you couldn't do this a year ago. Now you absolutely can.”
Schneider: Autonomous agents can now run entire Facebook ad campaigns end-to-end
“You can make an agent entirely run Facebook ads now. And I'm talking about like, it is researching the pain points. It is researching the outcomes of your target customer. It's making creative that's on brand, both statics and also like AI avatar UGC. It's pub…”
Schneider: AI agent systems reduce 100-ad Facebook setups to 90 minutes
“If I wanted to go and create a hundred ads, right. And get that into Facebook ads, like that is probably like two weeks of work, right? Historically. And now you as a founder, like literally in the next hour and a half, you can have this whole system that I ju…”
Dan Shipper: Users can feed video into Codex to recreate apps
“But honestly, you can literally just feed this video into codex and just be like, make something like this and it will do that.”
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Wilkinson: Built and Runs a SaaS Business Entirely Autonomously via OpenClaw
“And so as a test, before I started doing this in our operating businesses, I basically built a business a SaaS business, and then I've been running it entirely autonomously using OpenClaw.”
Liu: OpenAI and Anthropic have over $80 billion in combined revenue
“Take opening Ionanthropic alone, right? Let's just say they have a combined revenue probably of like eighty million plus, right? Or eighty billion, sorry, plus right now up from like basically zero a few years ago.”
Riley Brown: OpenAI consolidated efforts to integrate Atlas browser inside Codex
“Well, recently they had like this big red alert at their company, and they decided to kind of push all of their efforts into one single app, which was Codex. And now what they're doing is they're just putting Atlas inside. They're basically putting Atlas insid…”
Brown: Codex can generate complete working mobile apps from one prompt
“For this, for now, you still need to have a Mac, and you need to have Xcode downloaded, but it can one-shot mobile apps, like full mobile apps.”
Ross Mike: LLMs degrade in performance once context fills past 70-80%
“Cause the model will get dumb as the context window closes, right? So if you have like a context window and I can draw this out, if this is your context window and like the optimal is You're between, like, there's always, like, maybe, like, 10% is already fill…”
Moritz Kremb: OpenAI permits OpenClaw OAuth connections while Anthropic officially bans them
“Because OpenAI has stated that they're okay with it. So for them, it's definitely fine to use this OAuth method with Anthropic. It's kind of a gray area a bit. I think officially in their terms of service, it says you're not allowed to do that.”
Moritz Kremb: Anthropic is banning users for connecting OpenClaw via OAuth
“And some people have been getting banned over it. So I do recommend that if you, if you're scared about your account getting banned, just create a new one, create a new account and put the 20 dollar plan on that.”
Greg Isenberg: Jensen Huang called OpenClaw the most important software release ever
“He said that Open Claw is probably the single most important release of software probably ever.”
Henry: TikTok algorithm suppresses content posted directly through APIs
“TikTok knows if it's posted through an API, and it just assumes, like you would, that it's posted by a bot, and it's just botted content, especially in the age of AI, and it gives it very little chance to do well.”
Kevin Rose: Vector Clustering Detects Undisclosed and Illegal Paid News Sponsorships
“I can detect when something is a paid sponsorship, even when sometimes people aren't calling it out as such, which is like really scary and illegal, because I will see, I can detect the similarity and distance difference between the vectors of the published co…”
Kerner: Facebook Marketplace APIs Allow Third-Party Apps to Be Built
“I've already looked into it. Don't tell me the API permissions don't allow for it because they do.”
Simons: AI reduces a month of engineering time to five minutes
“What would take a month of engineering time Can take literally five minutes.”
Schneider: Consumers buy from niche creators rather than influencers
“People like, and all of our data supports this. People do not make Purchasing decisions, largely off of like influencers. They make them off of creators that are consistently talking about these things. Influencers only work if you're at like a massive scale, …”
Schneider: AI search responses are sourced from Google pages one through three
“When it comes down to it, like all that's happening is basically what is ranking on page one through three of Google. That is what the source material for the AI responses are.”
Schneider: ChatGPT and Perplexity rely on Google's index instead of crawling
“ChatGPT and OpenAI and Perplexity, like, they're all built on the back of this, like, search engine Google, right? Google has spent the last, whatever, 30 years or 25 years basically indexing the entire, like, internet. Imagine, like, Perplexity and ChatGPT, w…”
Isenberg: Alex Hormozi Made Around $100 Million From Webinar Funnel
“In the last few days, Alex Hermozzi has made about a hundred million dollars using this webinar approach.”
Woodward: Google's Jules Coding Agent Can Fix 30 Backlog Bugs Per Minute
“You can just put Jules on a GitHub backlog and it'll fix like 30 bugs in a minute.”
AI automation turns 3 weeks of marketing work into 30 minutes
“What I thought I would do is kind of show you a few things that I created this morning that if you were to try to do it manually, it would take you at least two to three weeks of work to get it done. And I did it in about 30 minutes prior to hopping on this po…”
Courtney: OpenAI o3 Recreated a $35K, 3-Month Whitepaper in 10 Minutes
“We spent. 35,000 dollars to get a white paper created three years ago, which we used in a lot of marketing. Basically we wanted this company to go and research all of these things that were happening in businesses so that we could have all of these crazy quote…”
Wilkinson: Chris Anderson is currently shopping TED for sale
“You know, Ted is for sale right now. Maybe you should buy that. Is that for real? Yeah, it's for, I think it's public knowledge right now. They're shopping it around and he's going to give it, I think he's going to give it away to whoever is going to be the be…”
Al-Abdullah: Every 3% increase in net revenue retention doubles company valuation
“Every three percent increase in net revenue retention doubles the company's valuation.”
Senra: Spotify added 2M subscribers during Joe Rogan controversy
“And then his subscriber count over the few weeks went up. He added two million new subscribers”
YouTube's Algorithm Does Not Weight Comments for Video Performance
“Comments have no algorithmic waiting. Like YouTube don't look at comments for video performance, but it's a great indication of, Hey, like, especially with an audience like you have here that is Quite like a tribe of people into similar things.”
Hudack: Gradient AI dramatically outperforms Intercom across all shared customers
“These guys are dramatically outperforming Intercom in all of the, with all the customers that they have.”
Hudack: Meta has one of the largest permissioned training datasets globally
“Facebook has one of the largest permissioned training sets in the world.”
Rush: Google counts viral social media backlinks more than website links
“Google, they don't say so, but they do this. I know for sure they look at backlinks from social media. And if there is a good tweet with a lot of views and there is your link there, it's so valuable. And in that particular case, it was like fifth or 50th time …”
Courtney: Burnt-out teachers pay $38,000 annually for career transition coaching
“Teachers pay 38,000 dollars, usually spread out over the 12 months.”
Zuckerberg launched Facebook's Like button after dinners with Kevin Rose
“Facebook introduced the like button about a year later, I'd had multiple dinners with Zuckerberg talking about social voting and things like that.”
Isenberg: DoNotPay generates $5M in monthly revenue after raising $10M
“So they've raised ten million dollars and doing at least five million dollars a month in revenue.”
Ries: Facebook buried internal scientific research proving its products cause depression
“Facebook even commissioned the scientific research to find out if their product makes people depressed. And then they found out that it does. And they were like, oh, better bury that. Instead of take it seriously and do something about it.”
Isenberg: Top writers like Sahil Bloom make $5M a year
“Like, you used to get paid 50,000 dollars to write, and now the greatest writers, Sahil Blooms and the Nick Hubers, are getting paid five million dollars a year to write.”
Sharma: Every DTC cookware brand I know does over $100M revenue
“Every cookware brand I know is doing over a hundred million dollars in revenue.”
Spartz: Top EDM ghost-producer secretly sold one-third AI tracks in 2019
“I was doing AI music like four years ago and the biggest like EDM ghost producing website, which were, which is, they were responsible for like a large percentage of all EDM tracks. And they were selling secretly a third of all of their tracks were AI generate…”
Lavingia: Engineers and designers are 2-3x cheaper than 6 months ago
“Like engineers are cheaper. They're easier to hire. Designers are cheaper, easier to hire. And that's all I need. I don't actually don't need anything else. Those are the two most valuable, you know, resources on the planet. And now they're, you know, they're …”
Lavingia: Over 90% of startup value comes from engineer-founded giants
“If you look at startups and you say, okay, 99% of the public value is basically, or 90 plus percent is basically in four or five companies. Right? If you get rid of, like, Google, Amazon, Meta, like, we haven't done shit as an industry, right? In terms of actu…”
Lavingia: No non-technical founder uninterested in coding has built a $10B company
“I can't think of a single example of someone who is non-technical, doesn't have any interest in knowing how to code, and has built a ten billion dollar company.”
David Perell: Modern education ignores 70 to 80 years of learning science
“None of the learning science that has come out in the last 70 to 80 years has actually been implemented.”
Pal: Only tech stocks and crypto beat the Fed balance sheet expansion
“There's only two things that outperformed the Fed balance sheet over the last, since 2008. Only two asset classes. One was technology stocks, and the other was crypto.”
Saltarelli: Big CPG won't reproduce manufacturing lines under $300M revenue
“They won't even look at reproducing a manufacturing line internally unless they have proof points of three hundred million dollars a year of revenue.”
Friedberg: Most commercial wine from Gallo and Constellation contains added flavorings
“In fact, people don't realize this, but most of the commercial wine you buy today is actually flavored. It's not just the grapes. So everyone from Constellation Brands to Gallo, they take grapes, they turn it into ethanol and water and flavor, and then they ad…”