why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tossell: Prompt engineering will become worthless as AI models abstract it
“I don't think prompt engineering is actually valuable, a valuable thing, because I believe all these models and all these tools will actually, like, abstract that away anyway.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Tossell: A two-person company will generate hundreds of millions by 2027
“We'll have a company pulling in like hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, and it'll be like one or two people actually running that, that company.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI coding agents will eventually fully automate GitHub pull request workflows
“I just think you start here and you can think, well, at some point the, like the PR stuff, that's going to be automated. Like, I'm sure you can get bots now that if there's a successful pull request, it'll just merge it to the main branch. So like, you never h…”
Prediction Held up
Tossell: AI will automate end-to-end ad copy, imagery, and performance optimization
“You could even have ads being optimized, like AI could be writing the copy and showing and generating image and then all of a sudden it'll swap and change a few things and it'll see what that CTI was much better. Let's go with this one. And then they just opti…”
Prediction Held up
Tossell: AI verification systems will detect fake videos
“I think we're going to be able to tell, like there'll be a system that you can plug in and say, tell me if this video is fake and it'll say fake or whatever.”
Assertion Supported
Tossell: Codex cannot process uploaded files, images, or UI mockups
“Because the thing you can't do in codecs, so there's some limitations here, obviously, like you can't upload any files. You can't upload any images. You can't say make the UI look like this.”
Assertion Supported
Tossell: Codex Ask Feature Lacks Live Internet Access
“And it can do it and it, but it's more connected to, it's not connected to the internet. So it's like, I'm just looking at your repo and answering based on what it has, what knowledge it has to give you that response.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tossell updated his live website via AI with five button clicks
“We've opened the task, we've merged it, we've closed it works on my site. I did no coding, and I did Maybe like four or five button pushes to do this.”