The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,791 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pal: Only tech stocks and crypto beat the Fed balance sheet expansion
“There's only two things that outperformed the Fed balance sheet over the last, since 2008. Only two asset classes. One was technology stocks, and the other was crypto.”
Pal: Breakthrough technologies will reach 4 billion users by 2037
“This is stuff actually happening right now. That's going to go from, you know, a hundred million people to four billion people in the next decade and a half.”
Pal: 20% of corporate intangible balance-sheet value will be tokenized
“Well, probably 20% of that is going to get tokenized via what you're doing is essentially tokenizing the intangible of brand, culture, and community.”
Calacanis: Crypto market downturn will trigger hundreds of lawsuits
“And I think this stress test is gonna result in countless And I mean countless lawsuits. Hundreds of lawsuits.”
Calacanis: Disney's streaming bundle will reach one billion subscribers
“I think that between Disney, Hulu, ESPN plus, they're going to get to a billion subscribers.”
Ball: Quantum Computing Will Be Solved Within Our Lifetime
“The field of quantum computing is one of those other areas where we think in terms of fantastical ideas, this is a Jetsons thing, it's not a human thing, but there's increasing consensus that that technological problem will solve within our lifetime, in which …”
Ball: Metaverse will exacerbate existing internet harms like disinformation and platform power
“I think we can fairly look at the state of the internet today and identify many problems, mis and disinformation, radicalization, toxicity, harassment, abuse. Data rights, data security, data literacy, platform power, platform regulation. And we can understand…”
Saltarelli: Big CPG won't reproduce manufacturing lines under $300M revenue
“They won't even look at reproducing a manufacturing line internally unless they have proof points of three hundred million dollars a year of revenue.”
Goldberg: STEPN sneakers will lose value without a burning mechanism
“Steppen has this Runaway sneaker breeding problem because there's no burn mechanism in place for getting rid of all of the excess sneakers. Like people are minting and minting and minting. And so eventually they're all going to become worthless, or you're goin…”
Bloom: Fed Will Pivot on Q2 Weakness, Fueling Growth Stock Rally
“My gut tells me that we're going to see like a pretty bad Q two from an economy standpoint. Like I wouldn't be shocked if we actually saw a negative growth and people panic. I think the fed will just like reverse course very quickly. Cause they've shown an unw…”
Isenberg: On-chain resumes will enable hiring within 60 seconds
“I believe that in the future you'll have your resume on chain, and you'll be able to apply at a job, and then within 60 seconds get that job, because, you know, those people know that you are great at Uniswap, or you understand how to code in Rust, or Solidity…”
Friedberg: Most commercial wine from Gallo and Constellation contains added flavorings
“In fact, people don't realize this, but most of the commercial wine you buy today is actually flavored. It's not just the grapes. So everyone from Constellation Brands to Gallo, they take grapes, they turn it into ethanol and water and flavor, and then they ad…”
Friedberg: Beverage market will expand from 100 brands to 100,000 brands
“I don't think that there is, you know, like maybe there's a hundred brands that make up 99% of beverage sales in any category today.
I think in the future, hopefully it's a 100,000 brands
and, you know, any individual can find a perfect brand for them.”
Friedberg: Earth will deplete its phosphorus reserves in about 100 years
“We're gonna run out of phosphorus in about a hundred years. That's how much we're mining out of the ground, and how little there is left.”
The First YouTuber Billionaire Will Emerge From India by 2027
“I don't think it's gonna be Mr. Beast, by the way. I think. SPEAKER_02: Why is that? Nuseir Yassin (Nas Daily): I think they'll come from India. I think a lot of people In India are like killing it, but the mainstream media in the United States does not listen…”
Demirors: The government system will inevitably collapse under its own weight
“It's gotten so large and so cumbersome, like, it will collapse under its own weight. It's inevitable.”
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Bier: FTC will block Meta from acquiring competitors to fix growth
“The regulators the FTC they won't re they won't sign off on any sort of large acquisition of a user base. So They're losing users from an engagement from these two other competitors. And at the same time, they can't really buy their way out of it like they did…”
Bloom: TikTok is de facto controlled by Chinese government
“TikTok, which is Chinese owned, and de facto controlled by the Chinese government, by the way, and owns the data of literally every single teenager in the United States.”
Billy Markus: Gaming NFTs Will Gain Adoption Rebranded as 'Digital Goods'
“The gamers tend to hate NFTs. So I think they're just gonna be rebranded to like digital goods, and then people decide that they like them not knowing that behind the scenes is blockchain tech and NFT tech and stuff.”
Belsky predicts centralized and hybrid services will ultimately win in Web3
“In, in many cases, centralized services will win or hybrid, you know, decentralized by ethos, but centralized to some extent by like certain aspects of the user experience, you know, I think are maybe going to ultimately win”
Belsky: AI recommendations will cause consumers to abandon the concept of favorites
“And so, you know, that for music, that for travel, that for restaurants, that for whatever, like, maybe we're all gonna vastly increase the surface area of our exposure to stuff we like, and in some ways, like, abandon the concept of favorites altogether.”
Belsky predicts 3D creation will democratize and go mainstream like mobile photography
“Same exact thing's gonna happen for three D. I'm like wholly convinced that that's the case.”
Vaynerchuk: Most NFT Projects Cannot Maintain Value Due to Supply Flood
“The far majority of projects in this gold rush cannot maintain their value because the supply of NFTs that are coming into the market is extraordinary.”
Ohanian: 'Minimum Viable Community' will become the new standard
“The minimum viable community is going to become the new standard and you're already seeing it in PFP projects.”
Ohanian: Bored Ape owners will borrow against NFTs and never sell
“It is inevitable and on the order of months and lots of years, if not months for all those Bored Ape owners, To never have to actually sell.”
Ohanian: VCs must accept pseudonymous token holders on cap tables
“Not only will VCs have to get comfortable having other folks on the cap table who are, let's say, individual investors, they'll have to get comfortable with, like, a bunch of random strangers on the internet who have just bought into the token. Who are totally…”
Ohanian: Reddit is a proof of concept for Web3
“In many ways, I think Reddit will be looked at as a kind of proof of concept for a lot of the stuff that Web Three is just gonna run away with in the next few years.”
Ohanian: DAO participation will be commonplace within five years
“I think everyone in five years will participate in a DAO. They won't know it necessarily. I don't think that branding is, is whack. But they won't care. Right. User experience triumphs over everything. So yeah, I think it will be pretty commonplace. Not, maybe…”
Ohanian: People will value online pseudonyms over real names within five years
“In five years, agree with the statement that a famous VC asked me like 10 years ago, what's something that you believe that the rest of the world were? And I told him that people will care more or do care more and will care more about their online identity tha…”
Sam Parr bets money that fractional ownership startup Pacaso will succeed
“I'll bet you money that this company's wildly successful.”
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Isenberg: Teams Adopting MCP Skills Will Require Security Gatekeepers
“If Teams are going to install AI skills and MCP servers. Someone's going to need to help them decide what's safe. You know, that could be a trusted marketplace, a security scanner, an install gate for companies, or a feature inside every agent platform.”
Isenberg: Marketing engineer will be tech's most valuable role within 24 months
“I think one of the most valuable people in tech over the next 18 to 24 months is going to be something called a marketing engineer.”
Miller: Mediocre software is dead in several years
“I think mediocre software is dead in several years, and the reason that I think it's actually a longer timeline than most people are predicting is because of what I shared about, like, how often people are actually using this stuff.”
Isenberg: Video-first creators will win consumer software as code commoditizes
“And now the people that are going to win are going to be the more creative, maybe the video first people, the people that can like understand how to create Instagram reels that a posture app can go viral and the code is actually going to matter a lot less.”
Miller: Enterprise CMOs are panicking over how AI agents discover brands
“Like, I can tell you that CMOs, all of them are asking about, like, how do I get discovered by agents? How, what does the agent first shopping experience look like? What does brand consideration in the AI age look like? You know, all of that is being considere…”
Greg Isenberg: Structured Agent Data Stack Will Spawn Thousands of New Startups
“And that stack is what's going to create this whole generation of, you know, thousands of companies.”
Isenberg: Social media managers will evolve into AI agent managers
“Agreed on the social media manager is like that role is dead or it's evolved. It's going to evolve. Like it's going to evolve into the social media agent manager.”
Carson averages 22 to 25 pull requests daily using AI agents
“And you can see what, you know, the average here is, is sort of this 22 to 25 PRs a day, right? And sometimes, you know, 40 a day.”
Dan Shipper: Fable AI autonomously emptied his team's bug backlog
“Like with fable, I was we were like literally The, our bug backlog was emptied out. You could just set it off and it was emptied out as long as you're willing to spend the money.”
Shipper: OpenAI and Anthropic do not really offer fine-tuning anymore
“In that case, like, you have to use open-source models, because none of the major model companies, or at least OpenAnthropic, don't really do fine-tuning anymore.”
Isenberg: The first one-person billion-dollar founder will be a builder-distributor
“I think that, you know, when people talk about the one person, one billion dollar startup, you know, Sam Altman talks about it You know, I think that person is going to be the builder distributor.”
Isenberg: Memory Hardware and AI Token Prices Are Not Getting Cheaper
“Because, you know, the price of memory isn't getting cheaper. And the price of tokens aren't getting cheaper.”
Hermes is the most used AI agent in the world
“Hermes is the most used agent in the world right now.”
Regulated sectors are legally barred from sending data to cloud AI APIs
“Healthcare, legal, finance, they have money, they have problems AI can solve, but they legally cannot send their data to a cloud API.”
Mike: Peter burned $1.3M in AI tokens in one month on loops
“The one argument I'll fight back with is this is going to burn a lot of tokens, and if you don't believe me, all you have to do is look at Peter's tweet, where in one month he burnt 1.3 million dollars worth of tokens.”
Taba: AI workflows reduce functional software prototyping from weeks to minutes
“A proposal might've taken up to three days and now it takes minutes. You can saw that clickable prototype again, not a prototype in Figma, not a design prototype. If functional prototype could take one to two weeks to figure out what to build, do it, get it ou…”