The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,121 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wilkinson: AI is incredibly accurate at interpreting psychological screening tests
“Like I'm using psychological screens that are supposed to be interpreted by a psychologist, but I'm not a psychologist. I'm using AI to do it. And I think it's incredibly accurate.”
Wilkinson: A 'Her'-style AI assistant will be built within years
“I've basically just accepted that I'm going to live in Claude code until somebody builds her which I'm sure is coming in the next couple of years.”
Wilkinson: Software Creation Is Effectively Free and Highly Reproducible
“Now I just think software is free. Anyone can make it. Anyone can rip it off.”
Wilkinson: Home services and brick-and-mortar face robotics risk in 10-20 years
“I'm either buying like something with a moat, which is very, very hard to find certainly in technology right now home services, businesses, like very, very brick and mortar kind of stuff. But even that I think is at risk with robotics over the next 1020 years.”
Isenberg: Traditional user interfaces are disappearing as AI environments replace apps
“The UI is going away. And, like, I don't know about you, but I'm spending more and more of my time in codex. I'm spending more and more of my time in cloud code. Like, those have become my operating systems. So I'm spending less and less time in apps, and it's…”
Wilkinson: Many previously high-quality businesses are now 'cigar butts'
“And I think a lot of previously high quality businesses that would be like a gourmet cigar from a cigar shop are now cigar butts.”
Wilkinson: Non-technical CFO built portfolio tracking tool in one week via Claude
“But anyway, this was built by my CFO. He's never coded in his life. Like when I told him about cloud code and that he should check it out, he's like, I don't know how to code. Like I'm not technical. And literally within like a week, I'm so lucky that he's the…”
Wilkinson: Addepar will not be able to sustain premium pricing much longer
“I don't think that they're going to be able to do that for too much longer because there's going to be a lot of competition that comes out. Hopefully somebody watches my video and says, I'm going to build this too, and then go crush Adapar.”
Wilkinson: Prompt engineer jobs are unnecessary because AI can interview users directly
“Nobody needs to build the prompts. The AI should just interview you. OpenAI just doesn't want to spend all the compute at this point, but it is fully capable of just interviewing you to figure out what you need.”
Howie Liu runs 30 autonomous cloud code instances in parallel for HyperAgent
“The way I develop on hyper agent is I have like 30 different cloud code instances running in parallel, and each one is coupled up to like a browser, Fully autonomous. It can go and like get other agents to comment on any PRs it creates.”
Liu: Hyperagent drafted an Airtable board memo investors called his best
“Like it's funny, like one of our recent board memos that I wrote and sent out to our entire board and kind of major investor list. Like, you know, a lot of it was researched and crafted by hyper agent, right? Obviously with like my, you know, kind of instincts…”
Liu: Manus was the pioneering autonomous AI agent before OpenClaw
“At least when Manus first came out, it's truly groundbreaking, right? Like it was the first kind of real, like, holy crap, like YOLO agent, like look at everything it did. Kind of, like, before even OpenClaw, right? Long before OpenClaw. And so I think they we…”
Liu: Benchmark memo told portfolio companies to radically rethink operations for AI
“One of the benchmark partners sent out this memo about, like, you know, it was basically a wake-up call to all of the portfolio companies to, like, you know, get with the program and, like, really radically rethink how you operate your business, like, immediat…”
Liu: Agent market will split into unscalable prototypes and clunky builders
“Where I see the landscape fragmenting into like, there's going to be really easy, fun kind of prototyping tools and products that are kind of like easy to get started with, but then ultimately don't scale with you as you want to become like a real serious ente…”
Brown: OpenAI's Codex is the most powerful interface for AI agents
“People are going to learn how to use the best interface to use AI agents, in my opinion. I think Codex by OpenAI, and that means if you have a ChatGPT subscription, you have access to Codex, which I think is the most powerful way to use AI agents”
Riley Brown: Codex is the only platform combining vibe coding and knowledge work
“It is the only interface that does vibe coding and knowledge work in one platform.”
Brown: AI will autonomously build and use custom tools within a year
“If you think about where we were even a year ago and then you think about where we will be a year from now, you know it may just create its own Canva a year from now and then use that. It might be like, oh, it'd be way faster for me to just create my own tool …”
Brown: Sora is not the best AI video model right now
“Sora's not the best video model right now, so that's why it's not interesting”
Isenberg: Mid-fidelity wireframes are bad; use low-fi or high-fi instead
“Mid-fi wireframes are bad. You know, I think that you want to start with low-fi or go high-fi. You know, you can't be half pregnant. You don't want to go mid-fi.”
Ross Mike: 95% of AI Agent Users Do Not Need Agent.md Files
“And then you have a lot of people have agent.md files or cloud.md files. Now I'm just going to say off rip, 95% of people don't need this. The reason being is, again, you have to assume that the models are already good, right?”
Ross Mike: Do not download AI agent skills from public marketplaces
“I don't download skills because your agent needs the context of a successful run, which you then turn to skills, right? And this is the big thing I see. You see skills marketplaces. You see download this and that. First of all, it's a easy way to attack somebo…”
Isenberg: Calling AI-displaced workers a permanent underclass is ridiculous
“It's ridiculous to call it a permanent underclass.”
Ross Mike: Agent Frameworks Hide Painful Two-Week Initial Setup Friction
“So there's like this early area of investment that you have to make that sucks that nobody will tell you, especially agent harnesses company because they wouldn't raise as much money if they did. But like this, maybe I would give it two weeks. Because it took …”
Ross Mike: Tooling and harness will matter more than base model improvements
“The next iteration is probably going to get better, but the harness and the tools that you surround it, the context that you give it is going to matter even more.”
Isenberg: Founders Can Launch and Monetize AI Startups in Mere Hours
“You know, in 20, 26, you know, you can have an idea
Or grab an idea from idea browser by nine a.m., have something built by 9:15 a.m., have a product built by, you know, nine 45, you get the first customer by 10, and you iterate by lunch.”
Isenberg: Fully Autonomous Businesses Will Soon Reach Eight-Figure Revenues
“I think that we're going to get to a point where these ambient businesses or autonomous businesses are going to start doing seven, eight figures.”
Isenberg: Agents Will Hire Other Agents, Dissolving Fixed Tech Stacks by 2030
“I believe that, you know, 2025 to 20 30, The agent economy is, is here. So agents discovering and hiring other agents on the fly. So fixed tech stacks dissolving.”
Isenberg: YC Predicts Over 300 Vertical AI Unicorns Will Emerge This Decade
“YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in, in, in, you know, this decade.”
Isenberg: Original, Weird Human Thinking Will Command a Premium Over Generic AI
“Just like being weird is going to sell in twenty-twenty-six and beyond. Because a lot of these LLMs are just, they're not good at being weird”
Isenberg: Infinite AI Content Will Shift Consumer Value to Physical In-Person Experiences
“When digital is infinite and AI generated scarcity shifts to physical presence with other humans.”
Isenberg: AI Agent Injection Attacks Will Be a Bigger Threat Than Phishing
“The agent autonomy is the vulnerability, and I believe that the potential is far bigger than phishing.”
Isenberg: Forking Entire Businesses Like GitHub Repositories Will Soon Become Commonplace
“I also believe that You know, forking a business, like how you fork a repo on GitHub is going to be very common.”
Isenberg: Building MCP servers in 2026 is like building mobile in 2010
“So I believe that building an MCP server in 2026 is in a lot of ways building, like kind of building for mobile in 2010. There's just a lot of opportunities to show up in LLMs in these connections, plugins, or MCP servers.”
Isenberg: Programmatic SEO remains undertapped across all business models
“I think that's applicable to really anyone. It doesn't make a difference if you're building a service, a SaaS, an app, you've got a boring business, you've got an agency, programmatic SEO is still under tab.”
Isenberg: The most valuable AI software will rely on data scraping backbones
“The most valuable software products are going to be using this data scraping tool at the backbone because it makes their AI 10 times smarter.”
Isenberg: AI web data scraping infrastructure is having its 'AWS moment'
“So I believe that this is the AWS moment for web data.”
Moritz Kremb: OpenClaw is the closest system to a truly autonomous agent
“And so it's kind of the first really personal agent that exists and also Currently, I would say it's the closest to what we have of a truly autonomous agent.”
Moritz Kremb: Hosting autonomous AI agents locally is safer than cloud VPS
“To mitigate that, I actually recommend just like set it up on a local Mac. Because there the risk is much lower than if you're setting it up on a VPS. Like a VPS is this thing that's in the cloud and it's like constantly connected to the internet. And it's jus…”
Gaskill: Founders using AI agents are 10 to 20 times more productive
“The founders and employees that are utilizing agents are like, no word of a lie, 10 to 20 times more productive in their day.”
Gaskill: Manual agent memory setup is superior to automatic chat memory
“And with agents, you have to set up memory and control exactly what you give it. And I think that's actually a benefit, not a limitation, because what happens is if you're using ChatGPT and it's got the auto memory, you're having conversations about three diff…”
Gaskill: Future-proof AI stacks rely on local markdown files
“The real future-proof AI stack is just having those markdown files on your computer.”
Henry: Dedicated mission controls and multi-agent setups are unnecessary for AI agents
“So I don't really believe in the mission control stuff or multi-agent. I just have Larry as the one agent that I text through WhatsApp and we just message like you would an employee.”
Henry: AI content agents need iteration and minimal micromanagement to succeed
“It is an iterative thing, so a lot of people try the Larry skill, and they tell me, it didn't work, I got 700 views. I was like, that's your first post. I got 700 views on my first post. You need to keep iterating the content. You have to spend the time lettin…”
Henry: AI agent rewritten onboarding drove record daily new user signups
“He has completely rewritten my onboarding, because he has the analytics from my app, and you can see here, it's massively helped. This got published two days ago, and this is the most new users I've had in a day for a long, long time.”
Henry: Agent performance relies on skill context more than underlying foundation models
“I think with things like OpenCrawl, it's not so much how the model works, it's how you're working with it, and how you're using skills and the context it has around those skills.”
Henry: OpenAI owns OpenClaw and will tighten its security
“I think now OpenAI own OpenClaw. The security is going to get a lot tighter. Things are going to be a lot, lot smoother.”
Henry: Ernesto Lopez scaled apps to over $70K MRR using Larry Brain
“Ernesto Lopez has used Larry brain to scale to over 70,000 MRR. He's implemented it in his apps using his already created content creation. He's implemented the Larry loop to improve the content he was already creating and will Was already winning, and he's ha…”
Isenberg: It has never been cheaper or better to build SaaS
“This is the greatest time ever to building SaaS. I mean, no other time in history has it been this cheap to be able to build SaaS, build audiences around it, get it to people who have billions of billions of dollars of spending power who want to buy your produ…”