why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by superior technology
“Bitcoin is a great technology. It's been proven pretty robustly over a decade, but it will be replaced by a better technology. All technologies replaced eventually by a better technology”
Opinion
Demirors: Bitcoin is the first technocratic religion
“I think crypto, I think Bitcoin was actually the first technocratic religion.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Demirors: Bitcoin's proof of work acts as a global money battery
“Proof of work in and of itself is actually, I think, going to be one of the things that brings humanity into a new age of energy production, right? Right because Bitcoin is effectively a money battery. It enables you to balance, like, power on the grid”
Insight
Lavingia: Founders cannot understand a technical concept until they write the code
“And the truth is, if you can't write it, you don't actually understand it. So you can pretend that you get it. But the truth is if you read the Bitcoin white paper and you haven't actually implemented it, you don't actually understand it. You don't actually un…”
Opinion
Demirors: Every crypto protocol other than Bitcoin has centralized leadership
“Every other protocol has a central organizing entity. It has leaders, it has rulers, it has kings, it has monarchs, right? And they're all men. It has monarchs. Bitcoin is the only thing that doesn't have that structure, right?”
Assertion Supported
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Opinion
Billy Markus: Dogecoin on-boarded more users to crypto than Bitcoin alone
“So it actually, this is true in my opinion is that Dogecoin has done an amazing, Service to the cryptocurrency community of like getting more people into cryptocurrency than ever would have if Bitcoin was just Bitcoin and like those people that were really int…”
Opinion
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Passive DCA into S&P and crypto dramatically beat his active bets
“I actually looked recently at my portfolio and like my five-year returns and the like smart investments I made like things where I thought I had edge or some sort of insight that was going to make it, you know, beat the market have underperformed the dumb doll…”
Disclosure
Markus Sold All His Crypto in 2015 After Getting Laid Off
“So I sold all my cryptocurrency in 2015. Like when there's this big bear market included. Yeah, Bitcoin. I had a bunch of Bitcoin, a bunch of light coin, and I was just like, whatever like this is a bear market was like three years. At that point. So, you know…”
What-if
Pal: Holding initial $200 Bitcoin beat his massive 2020 re-entry by 5x
“I went back and looked at if I'd just kept my initial investment at 200 bucks, I would have done, I can't remember them, five times better. Even though the size that I added in March, 2020 was massively larger than the first size.”
Disclosure
Melker: Core Crypto Portfolio Is Split Roughly 60/40 Bitcoin And Ethereum
“Ethereum caught up, so it's a sixty-forty Bitcoin-Ethereum split now for me, and then the rest, okay, we'll call that you know, 58 38, and the rest is the dust From the best trades of my life.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dogecoin Beat Apple and Amazon in Retail Trading Volume Last Year
“Doge was the, over the past 12 months, the fourth most traded asset across all retail brokers and exchanges. And it was, it beat out by the way, it beat out Apple, Amazon, and the SPY index, the S&P. It was literally behind Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ethereum”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Markus: In 2013, Crypto Utility Was Primarily Illicit Trade and Speculation
“The primary utility in Of cryptocurrency was illegal gambling or illegal purchase of drugs and weapons and whatever other terrible things. And yeah, and you know, just speculation in general. So that was like the scene in 2013.”
Disclosure
Calacanis bought Bitcoin at $2–$3 and $100–$200
“I bought Bitcoin at like two or three dollars, and then again at a 102 hundred dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Silk Road Was Bitcoin's First Real Use Case
“And it was basically the first use case of Bitcoin like in the very early days, and it's part of the reason why, like, Bitcoin got a reputation as being a, Currency for like scammers and fraudsters and, you know illegal kind of grifters because it was basicall…”
Disclosure
Markus Sold 10 Bitcoin for a $20 Profit in 2013
“I also have very embarrassing trades on Coinbase that are like me purchasing like 10 Bitcoin. And then, like, three days later, me selling the 10 Bitcoin for, like, 20 dollar profit”
Disclosure
Markus Built Dogecoin in Hours by Modifying Bitcoin With Comic Sans
“I just took the next couple hours, and like, all I wanted to do was change the regular bitcoin client to Be Comic Sans font, and then, like, have some custom stuff on it, like, instead of mining, it was, like, dig, and other stupid things like that, and, like,…”
Disclosure
Vaynerchuk: Invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2015-2016
“I invested in Ethereum and Bitcoin in 1516.”
Assertion Supported
Scaramucci: Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones flipped to buying Bitcoin
“Anybody that studies the blockchain, studies Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, a guy like Ray Dalio, a brilliant guy, a Bitcoin skeptic, studies it, he buys Bitcoin. Paul Tudor Jones, a skeptic, studies it, buys Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Kevin Rose adopted Bitcoin in 2011 and Ethereum at a few dollars
“My first tweet about Bitcoin was in 20 11, I think, and I was talking about Ethereum on Tim Ferriss show when it was a few dollars”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Melker: Lost Half Of Twitter Following After Pivot To Crypto Charts
“And so I immediately, like, cut my followers in half, right?”