The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by superior technology
“Bitcoin is a great technology. It's been proven pretty robustly over a decade, but it will be replaced by a better technology. All technologies replaced eventually by a better technology”
Jason Calacanis Jul 28, 2022 ▶ 28:36 How To Pick Startup Winners With Jason Calacanis
Opinion
Demirors: Bitcoin is the first technocratic religion
“I think crypto, I think Bitcoin was actually the first technocratic religion.”
Meltem Demirors Feb 18, 2022 ▶ 17:41 Minting Billionaires and the Religion of Bitcoin | Meltem Demirors, CoinShares
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Demirors: Bitcoin's proof of work acts as a global money battery
“Proof of work in and of itself is actually, I think, going to be one of the things that brings humanity into a new age of energy production, right? Right because Bitcoin is effectively a money battery. It enables you to balance, like, power on the grid”
Meltem Demirors Feb 18, 2022 ▶ 54:32 Minting Billionaires and the Religion of Bitcoin | Meltem Demirors, CoinShares
Insight
Lavingia: Founders cannot understand a technical concept until they write the code
“And the truth is, if you can't write it, you don't actually understand it. So you can pretend that you get it. But the truth is if you read the Bitcoin white paper and you haven't actually implemented it, you don't actually understand it. You don't actually un…”
Sahil Lavingia Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 30:06 Sahil Lavingia Gets Radically Honest
Opinion
Demirors: Every crypto protocol other than Bitcoin has centralized leadership
“Every other protocol has a central organizing entity. It has leaders, it has rulers, it has kings, it has monarchs, right? And they're all men. It has monarchs. Bitcoin is the only thing that doesn't have that structure, right?”
Meltem Demirors Feb 18, 2022 ▶ 54:19 Minting Billionaires and the Religion of Bitcoin | Meltem Demirors, CoinShares
Assertion Supported
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Meltem Demirors Feb 18, 2022 ▶ 55:24 Minting Billionaires and the Religion of Bitcoin | Meltem Demirors, CoinShares
Opinion
Billy Markus: Dogecoin on-boarded more users to crypto than Bitcoin alone
“So it actually, this is true in my opinion is that Dogecoin has done an amazing, Service to the cryptocurrency community of like getting more people into cryptocurrency than ever would have if Bitcoin was just Bitcoin and like those people that were really int…”
Billy Markus Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 49:05 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
Opinion
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 3:25 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Passive DCA into S&P and crypto dramatically beat his active bets
“I actually looked recently at my portfolio and like my five-year returns and the like smart investments I made like things where I thought I had edge or some sort of insight that was going to make it, you know, beat the market have underperformed the dumb doll…”
Sahil Bloom Aug 18, 2022 ▶ 29:33 Investor Psychology & Trading on the Future With Raoul Pal
Disclosure
Markus Sold All His Crypto in 2015 After Getting Laid Off
“So I sold all my cryptocurrency in 2015. Like when there's this big bear market included. Yeah, Bitcoin. I had a bunch of Bitcoin, a bunch of light coin, and I was just like, whatever like this is a bear market was like three years. At that point. So, you know…”
Billy Markus Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 32:30 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
What-if
Pal: Holding initial $200 Bitcoin beat his massive 2020 re-entry by 5x
“I went back and looked at if I'd just kept my initial investment at 200 bucks, I would have done, I can't remember them, five times better. Even though the size that I added in March, 2020 was massively larger than the first size.”
Raoul Pal Aug 18, 2022 ▶ 22:03 Investor Psychology & Trading on the Future With Raoul Pal
Disclosure
Melker: Core Crypto Portfolio Is Split Roughly 60/40 Bitcoin And Ethereum
“Ethereum caught up, so it's a sixty-forty Bitcoin-Ethereum split now for me, and then the rest, okay, we'll call that you know, 58 38, and the rest is the dust From the best trades of my life.”
Scott Melker Jan 27, 2022 ▶ 43:34 The Wolf of All Streets, Scott Melker | Where It Happens
Assertion Contradicted
Dogecoin Beat Apple and Amazon in Retail Trading Volume Last Year
“Doge was the, over the past 12 months, the fourth most traded asset across all retail brokers and exchanges. And it was, it beat out by the way, it beat out Apple, Amazon, and the SPY index, the S&P. It was literally behind Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ethereum”
Sahil Bloom Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 39:08 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Markus: In 2013, Crypto Utility Was Primarily Illicit Trade and Speculation
“The primary utility in Of cryptocurrency was illegal gambling or illegal purchase of drugs and weapons and whatever other terrible things. And yeah, and you know, just speculation in general. So that was like the scene in 2013.”
Billy Markus Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 25:21 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
Disclosure
Calacanis bought Bitcoin at $2–$3 and $100–$200
“I bought Bitcoin at like two or three dollars, and then again at a 102 hundred dollars.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 28, 2022 ▶ 3:31 How To Pick Startup Winners With Jason Calacanis
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Silk Road Was Bitcoin's First Real Use Case
“And it was basically the first use case of Bitcoin like in the very early days, and it's part of the reason why, like, Bitcoin got a reputation as being a, Currency for like scammers and fraudsters and, you know illegal kind of grifters because it was basicall…”
Sahil Bloom May 26, 2022 ▶ 2:03 $30M by Age 19 — And Where You Should Build Today
Disclosure
Markus Sold 10 Bitcoin for a $20 Profit in 2013
“I also have very embarrassing trades on Coinbase that are like me purchasing like 10 Bitcoin. And then, like, three days later, me selling the 10 Bitcoin for, like, 20 dollar profit”
Billy Markus Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 23:04 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
Disclosure
Markus Built Dogecoin in Hours by Modifying Bitcoin With Comic Sans
“I just took the next couple hours, and like, all I wanted to do was change the regular bitcoin client to Be Comic Sans font, and then, like, have some custom stuff on it, like, instead of mining, it was, like, dig, and other stupid things like that, and, like,…”
Billy Markus Jan 19, 2022 ▶ 28:43 Memes Rule The World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus | Where It Happens
Disclosure
Vaynerchuk: Invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2015-2016
“I invested in Ethereum and Bitcoin in 1516.”
Gary Vaynerchuk Jan 6, 2022 ▶ 17:27 NFTs with Gary Vaynerchuk | Where It Happens
Assertion Supported
Scaramucci: Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones flipped to buying Bitcoin
“Anybody that studies the blockchain, studies Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, a guy like Ray Dalio, a brilliant guy, a Bitcoin skeptic, studies it, he buys Bitcoin. Paul Tudor Jones, a skeptic, studies it, buys Bitcoin.”
Anthony Scaramucci Dec 17, 2021 ▶ 36:40 How to Become a Super Ball with Anthony Scaramucci | Where It Happens
Assertion Supported
Kevin Rose adopted Bitcoin in 2011 and Ethereum at a few dollars
“My first tweet about Bitcoin was in 20 11, I think, and I was talking about Ethereum on Tim Ferriss show when it was a few dollars”
Kevin Rose Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 1:01:24 Watch this if you want free $1m-$100m business ideas (with Kevin Rose)
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Melker: Lost Half Of Twitter Following After Pivot To Crypto Charts
“And so I immediately, like, cut my followers in half, right?”
Scott Melker Jan 27, 2022 ▶ 13:58 The Wolf of All Streets, Scott Melker | Where It Happens
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