The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Franceschi: Incumbent ERP companies will not build autonomous AI agents
“You have existing incumbents in the finance space, like the ERP companies, for example, I don't think they're going to go do that.”
Vasavada: 60% chance of a recession in late 2025 or early 2026
“If it's not this year, it would be late, like Q-three, Q-four it'll probably be early next year.
What do you think the current odds are on that?
I would say, 60% chance of a recession.”
Power: Fed will cut rates close to 2021 ZERP levels within 12 months
“I think that we have so much headroom in the federal reserve rate, that I think we're going to see dramatic cuts close to twenty-twenty-one ZERP levels over the next 12 months.”
Sadeghi predicts Nucleus will sequence 500,000 whole genomes by 2026
“I think we can actually, I think two years from now, we can get half a million samples. Two years from today, I think we could do that.”
Bernauer predicts Radiant will complete and ship a reactor in 2025
“Twenty-twenty-four will be the last year that we're playing around with the analysis paralysis and the design and answering all the questions, the regulator and simulating things in the twin. And twenty-twenty-five is going to be actually building the thing up…”
Ulevitch: All future autonomous vehicles will be electric
“Part of the shift to electric vehicles, obviously we have EVs today, but as we shift to more autonomous vehicles, all those vehicles are going to be electric as well.”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025
“Obviously Trump is pretty loud on X and on Trump social around like pushing rate cuts, but I don't think Powell's gonna give into that. So my gut says two.”
Waymo will be operating in six cities by the end of 2025
“I think that I love the product, but also it seems like the speed at which they're iterating is increasing. So I'm going to go with six.”
Alter: 2024 will be the third most active year for European VC
“You know, if the pace continues, I think twenty-twenty-four will become the third most active year ever for VC funding in Europe.”
Power: Hadrian will open its Arizona factory by Christmas
“So we're launching factory three in Arizona, which will be up and running in Christmas. We're in July, we signed the lease a couple of weeks ago, so it'll take us six months from start to finish to have it up and running, which I think is really fast.”