The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stephens: Pacifism is only possible under a government monopoly on violence
“Pacifism as an idea is only possible inside of a governing system with a monopoly on violence. Like, you can't be a pacifist without a government monopoly on violence. That's just, like, not possible for humanity.”
Stephens: AI and autonomous defense fulfill Just War Theory by maximizing precision
“The goal is take humans out of dull, dirty, dangerous jobs so we're not putting our, you know, men and women, brothers and sisters, in horribly dangerous situations and become as accurate and precise as possible. And that's really what Just War Theory is all a…”
Stephens: Defense primes ignore startups until market share is threatened
“I think like broadly across the defense industry this is a pattern that you saw happen with both Palantir and SpaceX as well, is that the big players, the primes, they don't really pay attention at all until their lunch is being eaten. And then the moment they…”
Stephens: Pacifism requires a governing system with a monopoly on violence
“Pacifism as an idea is only possible inside of a governing system with a monopoly on violence. Like, you can't be a pacifist without a government monopoly on violence.”
Stephens: Heavy portfolio concentration drives superior venture fund returns
“Concentration and venture is a really important one. This is like the idea that you don't want to have a thousand investments in a billion dollar fund. You want to have like a massive amount of concentration in the top few positions in that fund. That's someth…”
Stephens: Selling defense tech requires government relations because end users don't control budgets
“You have to hire a strong government relations team because your customer is not the budget appropriator. Like they're not the same. So you have to be able to work the administration. You have to be able to work Congress. You have to work political appointees …”
Stephens: Anduril succeeded by targeting a sector with zero VC competitors
“It really does not make sense or would not have made sense for Andrel in 2017 to go and compete in these highly, you know, crowded marketplaces. We went and targeted an area where there were no venture backed players at all. And that gave us an incredible head…”