The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wu: AI will be capable of performing all pure human knowledge work
“I've always felt that there's, in terms of just pure knowledge work, there's, there is nothing that humans do that AIs can't do, you know, partly because Humans are, humans, you know, our brains are just computers, you know, like the AIs are too, right?”
Wu: Nearly all software engineers will use coding agents within three years
“The rough answer for, you know, two, three years from now is roughly every software engineer in the world, and probably a lot more than all the Just the software engineers because I think a lot more people will be able to produce code and produce products and …”
Wu: Reinforcement learning can solve basically any clearly defined benchmark
“We're kind of getting to the point where you can solve basically any benchmark, right? Because what does it mean to have a benchmark? It means you've already defined the task. You've clarified what success or failure looks like. You've given a bunch of example…”
Wu: AI will solve all intelligence problems, but not in six months
“I really don't think that there are, like, intelligence problems that AI will not solve in the long term. I just don't think of that as, like, it's gonna be all over in six months.”
Scott Wu: Single-use and self-driving software will exist
“Like single use software is going to exist. Like self-driving software is going to exist, right?”
Wu: Cognition writes roughly 95% of its code using Devin
“Obviously we use a ton of Devon to build Devon. In fact, we almost exclusively use Devon to build Devon at this point, like, 95% of the code or something's written by Devon.”
Wu: Cognition's shipped code increased roughly 7x in six months
“Even in the last six months, I think the number for us was like, our total amount of code shipped is roughly seven X in that time. And so it's like the number of PRs we've shipped, the amount of code”
Wu: Devin customer usage grew 11x to 12x in six months
“Our customers in the last six months or so, I've also grown their usage in something in the range of like, 11 to 12 acts, and of Devin.”
Scott Wu: Coding IDEs and AI agents must share persistent codebase context
“The really good coding IDE products, you know, the tool that you're kind of like sitting in and like using to look at the code itself versus the agent product, which is kind of that almost the engineer that you can delegate. You obviously want this to be very …”
Cognition Had $70M–$80M ARR and 35–40 People When Buying Windsurf
“Cognition at the time was all of 35 or 40 people and we had a meaningful business with, you know, real traction. We were doing in the range of 70 or eighty million of revenue run rate at the time but it was a very small team. Windsurf, on the other hand becaus…”
Wu: Cognition Offered to Play Thiel's Firm in Poker for 1% Equity
“Since you're such a big fan of poker, you know, we can just play a heads-up poker match for that, and we can have the winner decide whose terms we actually sign. It would have been for, in retrospect, it would have been for, like, one percent of the company or…”
Cognition completed the Windsurf acquisition over a single weekend
“We got in touch with the Windsurf team that evening, so it was Friday evening, and then basically over the course of that weekend we,
Worked out the entire acquisition together. So, by Monday morning, we had the announcement ready to go.”
Wu: Rapid model leadership shifts deter enterprises from single-vendor lock-in
“Obviously, the way enterprises work is they want to have long-term partnerships, and frankly, it's just hard to know what's going to happen in the long term, right? Like, who even is going to have the best model in six months, or 12 months, or whatever, and I …”
Scott Wu: The real AI unlock in software is capacity, not efficiency
“I think the real unlock is not in efficiency, but in capacity, right? It's like, what can we do if we can build so much more?”
Wu: Roughly 30 of Cognition's First ~50-60 Employees Were Former Founders
“Our first, like, you know, 56 people, I think like 30 of us were, had founded a company before this”
Wu: Devin's breakthrough first task was autonomously fixing a MongoDB setup
“And, like, Devin just ran a bunch of stuff for a few minutes, and then fixed it. And then, like, sent Walden a message, like, hey, I got it, it's up now. Walden didn't really, he didn't really believe it at first. I think we still have the video recording of t…”