The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Clark: Some of the most valuable companies will be in hardware
“I am fairly confident that We are going to produce some of the world's most valuable companies in hardware over the next decade.”
Clark: Productized intelligence will create a post-SaaS era of software companies
“Now there's a new substrate for technology, which is what if you could productize intelligence and call it via API or fine tune a model with it? And I think that it engenders an entirely new breed of software companies. So I don't think it's an after open AI. …”
Clark: Neuralink will eventually restore sight and motor function
“I think they'll actually do a number of things that are really helpful on the right side too. You know, things from there roadmap like blindsight, which they're gonna try to restore sight to the blind. You can imagine things that are actually gonna try to rest…”
Clark: OpenAI will endure in the near term like Meta or Google
“I think the beauty is one, hopefully open AI is going to be an enduring technology. And so I'd be very surprised if in the near term we were talking about an after open AI, you know, is there an after meta or an after Google?”
Clark: Software companies will productize reinforcement learning to automate high-drudgery work
“I think we're in this moment where reinforcement learning, as you mentioned, is this new lever, but we've seen it make its way into very few new software products. I think few products in the labs rumor has it some of the coding companies like cursor have done…”
Clark: A new wave of hardware companies will tackle physical GDP
“I think we're gonna see a real renaissance of, you know, problems that don't just have to be solved with bits. They can also be solved with atoms as well. You know, sometimes to make a real impact on the world, you actually need to move something in reality. A…”