The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Clark: Cursor reached hundreds of millions in run-rate revenue in 18 months
“I think when we invested, there were a couple tens of thousands of users and you know, low single digits, million air are fast forward to today. I don't think the company publicly publishes revenue, but call it on the Many, many hundreds of millions of run rat…”
Clark: Some of the most valuable companies will be in hardware
“I am fairly confident that We are going to produce some of the world's most valuable companies in hardware over the next decade.”
Clark: Wiz closed six-figure enterprise deals in weeks or months
“And so Wiz was Closing on these like very healthy six figure deals in a matter of weeks or months, which was just unprecedented. You know, normally you have small deals and fast cycles. You can have big deals and slow cycles, which had more or less figured out…”
Clark: SpaceX, Tesla, and Anduril accelerated growth at multi-billion scale
“I was looking at the revenue curves actually of and roll and SpaceX and Tesla the other day, and they are some of the only companies that have actually accelerated growth at scale, which is to say they are growing at a faster rate at multi-billion dollar scale…”
Clark: Starlink generates large majority of SpaceX revenue and cash flow
“Created the opportunity for them to build a Starlink, which is now one of the most powerful internet constellations in the world. And it's actually driving a very, very large majority Of overall free cashflow and revenue for the business.”
Clark: Productized intelligence will create a post-SaaS era of software companies
“Now there's a new substrate for technology, which is what if you could productize intelligence and call it via API or fine tune a model with it? And I think that it engenders an entirely new breed of software companies. So I don't think it's an after open AI. …”
Clark: No Thrive portfolio company has laid off engineers due to AI
“My bottoms up answer is I'm an investor in a lot of companies that use AI tools. I cannot think, especially on sort of the coding side and engineering side of a single one that has laid off engineers because of these tools.”
Clark: Wiz had churned only one customer before Thrive's round
“I think they'd almost never, they turned one customer in the course of all the time between when they started the company and when we were looking at this round.”
Clark: Anduril won a defense program of record within two years
“They, I think, won a program of record, which are the very big budget line item contracts in the National Defense Authorization Act within two years. Fastest timeline since the Korean War.”
Clark: Five of the ten most valuable companies are hardware companies
“Even right now, five to 10 most valuable companies in the world are hardware companies. Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Tesla, TSMC.”
Clark: Neuralink will eventually restore sight and motor function
“I think they'll actually do a number of things that are really helpful on the right side too. You know, things from there roadmap like blindsight, which they're gonna try to restore sight to the blind. You can imagine things that are actually gonna try to rest…”
Clark: OpenAI will endure in the near term like Meta or Google
“I think the beauty is one, hopefully open AI is going to be an enduring technology. And so I'd be very surprised if in the near term we were talking about an after open AI, you know, is there an after meta or an after Google?”
Clark: Software companies will productize reinforcement learning to automate high-drudgery work
“I think we're in this moment where reinforcement learning, as you mentioned, is this new lever, but we've seen it make its way into very few new software products. I think few products in the labs rumor has it some of the coding companies like cursor have done…”
Clark: A new wave of hardware companies will tackle physical GDP
“I think we're gonna see a real renaissance of, you know, problems that don't just have to be solved with bits. They can also be solved with atoms as well. You know, sometimes to make a real impact on the world, you actually need to move something in reality. A…”
Clark: 50% of Wiz's users in 2022 were developers, not security staff
“50% of Wiz's users at the time were software developers, not security people.”
Clark: LiDAR sensor costs fell from $80,000 to hundreds of dollars
“And these days, lighter costs are a couple hundred dollars a sensor back in 2014. So barely 10 years ago, there was something like 75,080 thousand dollars a sensor. So wild decrease.”