The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Shadbolt: Quantum will parallel AI's sudden breakthrough via hardware and architecture
“It was really the convergence of two things to my mind the availability of hardware that was built for another purpose in this case, gaming GPUs, and then also progress on the architecture where I see very strong parallels between what we've done and what has …”
Shadbolt: Basic qubit physics is a small part of quantum scale
“That stuff is really important, but it's a small piece of the puzzle of building a data center sized machine.”
Shadbolt: Venture capital pressure for early revenue warps quantum startups
“We get coached that there is a certain way to do a venture backed company. And the coaching is very often you got to get some kind of revenue by any means necessary really early. And that's certainly true if you're a SaaS company, right? Like if I'm building a…”
Shadbolt: $1B in revenue marks the starting point for useful quantum computing
“When you're making a ton of revenue you're probably doing something that, you know, within reason you could call useful and like a billion dollars of revenue would be a nice starting point for a useful machine like this. Yeah, definitely what is not useful is …”
Shadbolt: Quantum Founders Cannot Win by Mudslinging Rival Architectures
“In quantum computing, you get all of these founders, they all show up and they all think that their way is the only way to do it and sling mud at everybody else. Everything else is crap. Like, you can't win that game. Like, nobody wins in that game.”
Shadbolt: The public never cares about supercomputers, only their output
“People have been building leadership class supercomputers for a very long time, and usually people don't care about them, and that's fine. Like nobody cared prior to GPT-III. Nobody cared that Azure and Microsoft and open AI were building big, ugly computers. …”