The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Constant AI Assistants Will Raise the World's Net IQ by 50 Points
“In general, I think the net IQ of the world is about to go up like 50 points. Like we're surrounded by people, not in Silicon Valley, of course, To quote the Big Lebowski, not a nom, of course. Right. The average IQ is still a hundred. I think the average IQ w…”
DoorDash Is Safe From AI Because Its Moat Is Restaurant Integration
“DoorDash is not important by way of having a great app. It's important because it integrates with all your favorite restaurants. So until OpenClaw can also do things like call every restaurant and negotiate with the owner and install the right kind of tablet a…”
Pure-Play Software Lacking Proprietary Data Will Be Replaced
“I think companies that have built software orally and just sell that software are very vulnerable. Like the bar for quality of software is going up rapidly... If you really hate some piece of software that you're using, And it's just software doesn't have some…”
Long-Term Tech Founders Should Not Fear Down-Round IPO Repricing
“If you're prepared for that journey, if you're ready to take it through the next 1015, 20 years, then it's time to go public. And it doesn't matter if on day one you're below your last private round, the question is where do you end up five years from now, 10 …”
Socialism Is Fundamentally Corrupt While Competitive Capitalism Works Exceedingly Well
“Socialism sucks. It is terrible. The only people who Do well in redistribution of wealth are the ones doing redistribution. Like it's fundamentally corrupt and there's not enough bad things I can say about socialism. So I think capitalism works exceedingly wel…”
Consumer AI Will Quickly Flush Out Fine-Print Business Models
“The willingness to put up with random obnoxious things like low quality or crappy terms or products that pretend to be something they're not, like all of that is just gonna get flushed out very quickly. And companies that have business models that are buried i…”
Business Books Written by Non-Operators Are Profoundly Vacuous
“They're just profoundly, profoundly vacuous, like books about how to run a business written by people who have never run a business. Always very dangerous.”
LLMs Allow Building Production-Ready Software in Record Time
“The thing that's happened with the LLM powered models is you can now go from, I have an inkling in my head to I'm going to build a prototype to I'm going to not always, not necessarily always on your own, but with a bunch of co-conspirators to build something …”
AI Research Papers Are Implemented and Broadly Available Almost Immediately
“And with AI, it's different where you're literally reading a paper, like, yeah, somebody's gonna implement it tomorrow and it's gonna be available. And then everyone's gonna take advantage of it.”
Engineers Need Taste and Foundational Knowledge to Steer LLMs
“I don't think the LMS are going to naturally always deliver beautifully crafted, elegant, and yet scientifically correct code. And so you'll still need some degree of taste, even so much to converse with the LM to steer towards the right outcome. And for that,…”
Software Engineering Will Shift from Syntax to Taste
“Maybe soon enough we'll spend zero time learning the exact minutia of syntactic Decisions of each programming language, but the conversation with the machine around what you as a software sculptor would consider to be elegant, I think will remain.”
Most US Banks Derive Disproportionate Income From Late Fees
“I never looked in a little while, but majority of American banks derive a disproportionate percentage of their income from late fees”
AI Productivity Gains Will Amplify the US Competitive Advantage
“I tend to believe in the former just because I'm being an American by choice. You sort of better be a patriot. Otherwise, what exactly were you thinking? And I am. So I tend to think that we will probably end up with just a Amplification of our advantage.”
Affirm Mobilized 1,200 Employees to Manually Review 800,000 Shopify Merchants
“They just signed his giant deal with us, like, all right, so we have 1200 employees, 800,000 merchants, I'm just going to give everyone 700 and something merchants to review manually. And so for like a week with no sleep, people are just like manually reviewin…”
Poland Leads the Former Eastern Bloc Through Education and Capitalism
“I think it's One of the several, but certainly the largest and maybe most cohesive place where the former Eastern Bloc country embraced capitalism in all the constructive ways. So there's lots of, it's big enough, so it has great education, A lot of very smart…”
Peter Thiel's 'Zero to One' Rings True to PayPal's Experience
“Unlike many bad business books, his is very good because he's built multiple companies, but when he wrote that, he was primarily drawing on the experience of building PayPal, which I think was formative for both of us, and what he wrote rings true to those of …”
Affirm Shifted From Flexible Tooling to Prescriptive Engineering Tools
“So for a while we'd sort of had this point of view of like you're writing code, do whatever you like and have whatever tools you want. And as the tools improved, we had come more and more sure of what works for us and what we don't like. And so we've been Sort…”
Entertainment-Driven Shopping Will Never Become Entirely Robotic
“So forms of shopping that are pure entertainment are never going to go entirely robotic.”
AI Assistants Will Take Over Price Discovery and Deal Hunting
“There's things like price discovery. There's things like Deal hunting and all of that sort of fairly easy to imagine if you're, whenever you caught yourself thinking, I wish I had an assistant to do this for me. You will now like that. That's where it's all go…”
Half of Americans Carry Revolving Credit Card Balances
“Half the country revolves on their credit cards, which means that they're paying interest over and above what they could pay back to their credit card issuer that month.”
Obsessing Over Quarterly Earnings Prep Is a Huge Waste of Time
“Spending a week obsessing over something that happened that ended six weeks prior is clearly a huge waste of time.”
Affirm Completed Its IPO Preparation in Under Three Months
“Going public, most people will tell you it's this long protracted affair and it's so hard and it's actually not like we decided to go public in September. We were basically ready with everything by November in December of 20, 20”
Closed Virtual Economies Inevitably Evolve to Resemble the US Economy
“If you look at the success arcs of these systems, over time they resemble U S economy more and more sort of like they typically start out with a fixed money supply and like, we'll, we'll figure out how to inject more money later. And then suddenly more people …”
Technical CEOs Are Writing Production Code at Night Again
“I really love learning from very technical CEOs these days, because all of us are trying to keep up and sort of do our day job and run a company and set strategy and sort of figure out what the future looks like. But also by night, we're suddenly all back to w…”
Majority of Affirm Shareholder Letters Reference The Big Lebowski
“But it is true that majority of our shareholder letters contain subtle or not so subtle references to the Big Lebowski, and because it's been public for twenty-ish quarters, and At some point, all the stuff that I've memorized has been used. So now I need to c…”
Affirm Does Not Compound Interest to Enable Fixed Pre-Pricing
“We don't compound interest specifically to make sure that we can pre-price every loan and say you're borrowing 500 dollars and your total interest charges will be 25 dollars or zero dollars if somebody else or merchant is paying your interest for you.”
Affirm Will Originate Over $47 Billion in Loans This Fiscal Year
“We'll do north of 47, forty eight billion dollars of loans this fiscal year alone.”
Levchin Sold Parts of His College Startup to LinkExchange
“When I was in college, one of my many failed startups didn't fail completely, and it ended up, parts of it ended up being sold to a link exchange, which Alfred and Tony and a bunch of other people I'm still good friends with were Founders slash very early empl…”