The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Pincus: Multi-trillion tech companies will reach $10T to $20T valuations
“I think these two to five trillion dollar companies are going to be 10 to 20 trillion dollar companies or more.”
Mark Pincus Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:24:06 Mark Pincus: How to Spot a Fake CEO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Zero percent of 40,000 recent App Store games sustained top 25 rankings
“I believe last year there was 40,000, 40,000 games launched in the App Store, and zero percent of them sustained a top 25 position.”
Mark Pincus Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 36:54 Mark Pincus: How to Spot a Fake CEO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Pincus: Smartphone users download an average of zero new apps monthly
“I mean, we download an average of zero new apps a month.”
Mark Pincus Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 36:40 Mark Pincus: How to Spot a Fake CEO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Pincus: First Round Offered Repeat Founders $250k Notes Sight Unseen
“And then I met with Josh Koppelman, and they had this deal at first round that they would give any second time founder, a 250 K bridge note with a ten million dollar cap, sight unseen.”
Mark Pincus Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:20:05 Mark Pincus: How to Spot a Fake CEO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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