why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Black: US industrial base cannot meet incoming aerospace and defense demand
“The current U S industrial base cannot keep up with the amount of demand that's going to see.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Black: 800+ U.S. mom-and-pop harness suppliers are disappearing via PE buyouts
“Versus the 800 plus mom pop shops that exist all over the U.S. That are not just not only growing or not only are they not growing, they're actually going away. And either private equity is buying them, or they're being absorbed into other companies, or anythi…”
Insight
Black: The future of American manufacturing is configuration, not just automation
“Ultimately, the future of American manufacturing is not just automation, it's configuration”
Disclosure
Senra Systems Closes $65M Series B Led by Lowercarbon and Interlagos
“Senra Systems officially closed our Series B fundraising for sixty-five million dollars. We had Lower Carbon, Interlagos leading the round with a lot of our existing investors coming into the mix, such as Sequoia, Founders Fund, General Catalyst Andreessen Hor…”
Assertion Supported
Black: Wire harnessing can reach 25% of a vehicle's cost
“It could be 25% of the cost of your vehicle in any given moment too.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Black: SpaceX outsourced 95% of Falcon and Dragon wire harnesses
“I was the manager of the research and development team for electronics, so I did a little bit of everything that went into a rocket and a satellite, and wire harvesting was the bane of our existence, and we outsourced 95% of it for Falcon and Dragon back in th…”
Disclosure
Black: Senra plans to build distributed factories near key customers
“The future of Senra is to just build more factories close to our customers where they kind of have this embedded engineering partner from the early prototype phase, and we're giving them manufacturing advice, we're giving them supply chain advice, and we're re…”
Insight
Black: Wire harnessing is a U.S. supply bottleneck driven by tribal knowledge
“There is a huge supply chain gap between what products we need to build in the U.S. That are critical and, like, what the industrial base can support. Specifically wire harnessing because it's such a manual assembly task. It's not like you can just go buy more…”
Insight
Jordan Black: Wire harnessing is the TSA of modern manufacturing
“I describe harnessing as kind of like the TSA of manufacturing, which like there's just so many things to fix, but it's like this never ending process on that side of the two.”
Assertion Supported
Black: Senra holds only DOL-certified wire harness training program
“We're actually the only US Department of Labor certified training program for wire harnessing.”
Disclosure
Black: Senra trains wire technicians in 4 weeks versus 2 years
“So we are training people in four weeks versus like the two year timeframe that happens.”
Disclosure
Black: Senra created automated vision system to track factory floor activities
“So like we actually created this vision system in the factory to like start almost tracking all the little things that everyone's doing, but like doing it automatically.”
Opinion
Black: SpaceX IPO liquidity won't lead to retirements over startup problems
“I think now with the SpaceX IPO, people will have, be more liquid, and I think people are actually more scared of like, oh, people are gonna retire, this, and this, and you'll, you'll talk to Ken, but like I think it actually makes it more, Do you have an inte…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Black: Senra produces over 4,000 units weekly for a defense client
“We're building actually 4000 plus of a unit weekly, and this is where Senra did the prototyping early on, stepped into production, and be able to scale very quickly after that, too.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senra quickly built a 120-foot wire harness blocking a multi-billion-dollar program
“This is a 120 foot long harness that goes into a defense system, and we got called in the 11th hour to go build this thing in two months because they are blocking a multi-billion dollar program, and then we are building it today.”
Disclosure
Black: Senra Systems completed its end-to-end AMP software system
“We actually continued, completed our software system, AMP,
From, like, start to finish, so anyone can go quote a wire harness to getting it shipped in our end-to-end software system.”
Assertion Supported
Black: SpaceX's Warp Drive software powered its entire manufacturing ecosystem
“Similar to the software system that SpaceX had, Warp Drive, that, like, powered the entire ecosystem of manufacturing. Like, we essentially are doing the same thing of how do you build this, like, custom-made manufacturing system for a very bespoke and unscala…”
Insight
Black: Wire harnesses are designed last but needed first in hardware builds
“Wire harnessing the last thing to get designed, but one of the first things that's needed for them to actually turn it on and build it.”
Disclosure
Black: Most of Senra Systems' current business is in defense
“Most of ours is in the defense space because that is what's like, is hyper growing right now. We do plan to go more into the commercial market but a lot of these primes that are also are going to be both on the government side and on the commercial side too.”
Disclosure
Senra Systems plans to partner with AI companies rather than build models
“We don't plan to be this you know, AI modeling company. We plan to, like, partner with companies in the future”
Assertion Supported
Black: Average wire harness technician is 48 to 55 years old
“The average age of a wire harness technicians between like, 48 to 55 years old.”
Assertion Supported
Black: Ken Venner built the operating systems that scaled SpaceX and Broadcom
“Ken built the operating system that helped scale SpaceX from hundreds of people to thousands of people and did the same thing at Broadcom in like the eighties.”
Assertion Supported
Black: Dylan Field and CIV co-led Senra's Series A
“Ended up co-leading it with a CIV, which is another really great investor of ours, who's been incredibly helpful throughout this whole process, too.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Black: 'Senra' is 'harness' backwards minus the 'horse shit'
“Senra is just the word harness backwards. We just took out the H and the S because we're deleting the horseshit of harnessing.”