why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: Agentic AI will replace services firms like McKinsey, BCG, and Accenture
“So I think like Turing will probably replace companies like McKinsey, Bain, BCG, and every services company like Accenture, TCS, Wipro, Infosys, like all of these companies doing vanilla services that's going to be automated with these agentic systems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: Solving multimodality, reasoning, tool use, and coding yields ASI
“Turing's the world's leading research accelerator, working with all of these frontier labs to advance them along I would say the four pillars of superintelligence which is multimodality, reasoning, tool use, and coding. If you solve these four things, you will…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: AI will automate $30 trillion of global knowledge work
“This is like, if you look at those four dimensional, if you look at that four dimensional matrix, that's 30 trillion dollars of knowledge work that is going to be automated.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: Custom LLMs will allow investment firms to employ fewer analysts
“I think, like, the best firms are already doing this, ah, to help an investment analyst make better decisions faster, and eventually with significantly fewer people.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: AI will progress steadily rather than via rapid takeoff
“I don't think rapid takeoff is how things will unfold. I think it's going to be steady, continuous progress. Every step of the way, we're going to keep moving forward and it's going to be great, and it's great for a few reasons.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siddharth: AI models will solve agentic coding benchmarks in six months
“I would give, give that maybe six months before the models climb that hill, and then we'll generate data that's even harder for the models.”