why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peters: Consumers will disintermediate traditional healthcare using AI pocket doctors
“In the limit, we think every person in America, and frankly the world, will have an AI doctor in their pocket, and consumers will fully disintermediate the existing healthcare system as it stands.”
Insight
Peters: As AI makes replication easy, brand is the most powerful moat
“In a world where, you know, AI and vibe coding is only proliferating and making it easier to replicate products, brand is possibly one of the most powerful motes and defensible aspects of a business.”
Assertion Contradicted
Peters: Nearly 85% of US health system revenue comes from drugs and surgery
“In America, close to 85% of health system revenue comes from two sources.
Do you know what those are?
Tell us.
Pharmaceuticals and surgery.”
Opinion
Peters: Foundation models eliminate compute constraints in medicine
“With the advancement of foundation models compute is no longer a constraint in medicine, which has opened up this market opportunity in this portal for healthcare to really be built as a product.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peters: The largest consumer health companies will own fintech and underwriting
“What does the biggest health consumer health company in the world look like?
And it's probably some combination of,
Becoming the fintech layer and owning the, you know, insurance and the underwriting, the ability to actually cover and figure out, you know, t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Peters: Biologic drugs generate roughly $15,000 per patient monthly for life
“TNF alpha immune system modulator, which is like a called a biologic drug. It's a class of biologic drugs that modulate your immune system. They make, they generate like 15 K a month and you are on them for life typically.”
Insight
Peters: A doctor's core role is an informatics problem triangulating three databases
“Basically healthcare is, a doctor's job is an informatics problem, right? You're computing between, when you're a doctor and you go see a patient, you're computing between a database of what you know about a patient, what you know about medicine, and what inte…”
Assertion Contradicted
Jacob Peters: 8,000 chemicals in US food supply do not exist in Europe
“8000 chemicals exist in the U.S. Food supply. Jacob Peters: That don't exist in Europe.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peters: Healthcare Will Decouple Into Emergency Coverage and Proactive Health Plans
“We're going to see this decoupling where I think you know, people are going to be okay paying for emergency health insurance.
but then there will be different new innovative models to help cover the fact that there are a lot of things that move the needle on…”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower rejected a $2M domain offer from an AI startup
“Yeah, and I've been offered over two million for it by a well-funded AI company, which I will not name.”
Assertion Supported
Peters: Polyester fabrics leach inhalable nanoplastics during movement
“Polyester, these things, they basically leech, you know, nanoplastics that literally get inhaled as you know, move the fabric.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peters: High-end concierge whole-body medical analysis costs $50K to $100K
“In a human brain constrained medical paradigm, it costs 50 to a 100,000 dollars to get that level of insight and access and time and intention with a really smart person who's a scarce resource”
Assertion Partly supported
Peters: Superpower tests roughly 10 times more labs than annual physicals
“For most people, even the base version of what we built today is exponentially better than anything they've ever had because we test about, like, 10 times more labs than your traditional annual physical, which is very lacking relative to what we should be doin…”
Disclosure
Peters: Forerunner's Kirsten Green led Superpower's Series A and joined the board
“So we were fortunate enough to be able to team up with Kirsten Green. Amazing. Yeah, amazing. Who's the founder of Forerunner, Forerunner Ventures to join the board and be a part of this round. So Forerunner was the lead investor.”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower's Series A was 1.5x oversubscribed
“Which was one and a half times oversubscribed. I don't want to overstate.”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower purchased superpower.com for a few hundred thousand dollars
“Put together a deal and we ended up buying it for actually only a few hundred K, but believe it or not.”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower founding team has nearly a dozen former venture-backed founders
“Almost close to a dozen of our founding team members. Hannah, who runs design, shout out Hannah. Max, who is my co-founder. Kevin, my other co-founder and our CTO. All former venture backed founders.”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower's engineering team consists of former YC DevTools engineers
“Our entire engineering team is formerly DevTools, you know, like Y Combin or DevTools engineers as an example, teaming up with the health subject matter experts in the scientific community to build something.”
Disclosure
Peters: Superpower Membership Costs a Few Hundred Dollars Annually for Biannual Testing
“So today it's a membership.
So people join Superpower, it's a few hundred dollars a year and they get access to the platform twice a year, full body testing, so that there's, again, never any gaps of understanding in terms of what's, what's ultimately happeni…”