why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Opinion
Slotowicz: Argus Gold aviation safety ratings are essentially pay-for-play
“Argus is, like, a third-party safety rating that comes in and does, like, an audit. It's really like a pay for play, right? Like, you basically pay them money, and then they give you a certification, especially at their, like, gold rating.”
Opinion
Slotowicz: Current tech wealth wave is probably largest in human history
“And we're seeing, like, not just an insane wealth creation moment, probably the largest we've seen in the history of humankind, but we're also seeing a shift in how people spend their wealth and their priorities, and also the type of wealth that they are gener…”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: High-end private jets are appreciating in value for the first time
“These airplanes, you know, airplanes are equipment, right? They don't go up in value normally, but we're seeing them go up in value for the first time almost ever, especially in the higher end of the market.”
Opinion
Slotowicz: Aircraft OEMs Prioritize New Deliveries Over Existing Fleet Support
“These manufacturers are trying to build As many airplanes they can as quickly as possible. And their priority is the newer airplanes that they can sell to brand new customers. Right? So their priority is not supporting the existing fleet. It's more on deliveri…”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: FBO event landing slots can cost $20,000 to $40,000
“I mean, of course there's Superbowl and there's like all those, and sometimes those can get ridiculous. They could be in the twenties or thirties or 40,000 dollars just for a short slot to drop off or pick up.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: Share of people flying private will more than double
“If .1% of them are flying private today, and that doubles, which I think it's going to more than double, to .2, that has like a Huge cataclysmic effect on our industry.”
Insight
Buying a private jet is cheap; operations cost $2M–$4M annually, says Slotowicz
“Buying the plane is just the beginning of the journey, right? That's the cheapest part of owning a plane. Then you have the pilots, the fixed cost, the mains cost, the fuel cost. You're probably looking at anywhere from Two to four million bucks a year to run …”
Insight
Traditional private jet tax write-offs fail for tech equity holders, says Slotowicz
“Unless you have an operating business to run it through, you're There aren't really any tax benefits. If you're like a SpaceX employee and you have a lot of stock, right? You're not, you don't have a business to run this airplane through. So not only are you p…”
Insight
Offsetting capital gains with jet depreciation creates an expensive tax trap
“Recapture is always taxed at ordinary income rates. So if you buy an airplane, And try to offset capital gains, right? Which is like, well, let's say your SpaceX shares, and then you sell it five years later and you recapture at ordinary income, you're essenti…”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: Private jet de-icing bills can reach $24,000 per flight
“We've seen it like, a 24,000 dollar de-ice bill in Aspen. So deicing is something that charter companies will typically pass along to the broker, which will pass along to you.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: New jet buyers are skipping light jets for super-mids and heavies
“Normally people would sort of enter the market by starting to charter, or they would start with getting a light jet. And people are now going straight for the super mid, straight for the heavy. They're going straight towards buying like the, you know, or buyin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: Private aviation faces a massive shortage of planes, parts, and pilots
“There's going to be a huge shortage.”
Insight
Slotowicz: 150 to 250 annual flight hours justifies private jet ownership
“Somewhere between a 150 hours a year to 250 hours a year is when you want to start thinking about owning a plane.”
Opinion
Slotowicz: New generation of wealth prefers chartering over jet ownership
“And I think actually, like, that's one of the big differences in this new generation of wealth. These people don't want complexity. Most of them are able to book well in advance. They're not last minute people. They're, they are willing to book seven days in a…”
Insight
Slotowicz: There is no cheap or economical way to fly private
“I think, like, the truth is, like, flying private is not economical. There is no real economical way to do it. It's a very expensive thing, and it's really a matter of, like, priorities, and it's something that is important to you if you see, like, the utility…”
Insight
Slotowicz: Engine makers deprioritize parts for owners not on maintenance programs
“These engine manufacturers, they really have a monopoly on the supply chain of the engines. So. If you're not on a program and something happens, you get to the bot, you go to the bottom of the list for the parts.”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: Starlink installation costs about $300,000 per private jet
“It's about a 300,000 dollar cost to install on an aircraft like this. Very slightly on a bigger aircraft or smaller aircraft.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: 90% of Craft private charter missions prefer no flight attendant
“90% of the missions we have, like, people prefer no flight attendant.”
Insight
Private jet clients prefer DoorDash and fast food over expensive catering
“Everybody just orders DoorDash. It's, like, way better. It is. You get, like, In-N-Out, or you get, like, Chick-fil-A, like, people just prefer that. Like, you, you'd be surprised if you think you're flying, you know, flying private is all about, like, you kno…”
Assertion Supported
Bezos, Page, and Brin prefer G700 and Global 8000 jets, says Slotowicz
“So when you think about, like, the Jeff Bezos of the world and the Larry and Sergey Brin, or Larry Page and Sergey Brin you're, they're typically G-seven hundred, global 8000 category.”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: Dedicated pilots for private aircraft cost $1M to $2M annually
“Typically you'll want at least three pilots, especially if you're going to fly longer missions. Pilots get sick. Pilots need to go on, go to training twice a year. So you'll need to hire three to four pilots. That might run you one to two million a year.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Slotowicz: Pre-owned private jet prices range from $3M to $30M across categories
“If you're buying sort of pre-owned airplane, A light jet will run you around three to five million bucks. A midsize, something like this will be anywhere from 10 to 20, and a heavy jet, maybe 20 to 30 million dollars. Just the sticker price, just to get into t…”
Insight
Slotowicz: Fractional Jet Buyers Absorb Aircraft Depreciation Risk
“So the main difference between the two is that on the fractional, you know, you're, you are carrying the residual risk of the plane. So if the airplane depreciates The, that, the cost of the depreciation, the cost of capital is essentially on your dime, not on…”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: 70% of private aircraft buyers pay entirely in cash
“Actually, a fun fact is that only 30% of aircraft have Loans on them. Really? Yeah. 70% of people closing cash.”
Insight
Slotowicz: Corrosion is the single most expensive maintenance risk on airplanes
“If you discover corrosion in an airplane, sometimes they will have to re-engineer an entire component for an actual part of the plane that could take months and cost like hundreds of thousands of dollars. There's probably nothing That will cost you more money …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: 80% of Aircraft Parts Cause Immediate Grounding If Broken
“80% of the parts, if they're broken, the plane's down. You can't fly. So there is like a 20% of them that we get exceptions that we can fly certain amount of flights until it can get fixed.”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: Challenger 350 Brakes Cost Over $100,000
“A set of breaks on this aircraft, over a 100,000 dollars.”
Assertion Partly supported
Slotowicz: Bombardier delivery wait times currently span three to four years
“If you wanted to order a plane right now, a brand new plane from Bombardier, they'll probably take you three to four years until like, I think they're delivering now into 20, 30.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Slotowicz: A Gulfstream G650 private jet recently sold within one hour
“Yeah, there was a G-Six-Fifty that just sold in one hour. It hit the market, and then it just sold an hour later.”
Assertion Supported
Slotowicz: Bombardier Global 7500 maintains 3,100-foot cabin altitude
“If you looked at the sort of the best example in the private jet market, like the global 7500, that has a cabin altitude of about 3100 feet.”
Assertion Partly supported
Slotowicz: Top 5 charter providers flew 35% of 2025 hours
“If you looked at all the hours flown in 20, 25, 35% were flown at the top five providers. And then all the rest was done with all the rest of the hours flown were like small charter operators that have five, 10 airplanes, maybe sometimes even three airplanes.”
Disclosure
Slotowicz: Craft strictly refuses night flights into Aspen
“Aspen has its own unique, tricky set of constraints. We don't fly into Aspen at night. We won't do it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kanye West entered a private jet cockpit to photograph co-pilot's shoes
“I had Kanye West fly with us and take a picture of my co-pilot's shoes. What? Walked into the cockpit and said, can I take a picture of your shoes?”
Disclosure
Slotowicz: Five Years Ago, SF Was Not in Craft's Top 10
“San Francisco is, I would say five years ago was probably not even in our top 10.”