why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Ward: Startups are either execution-focused or multi-product innovators
“I think there's like two types of startups. There's innovation startups and execution startups. So an execution startup is like a rippling or a MongoDB, where it's just like, if you build a better database or a better HRIS system, you have line of sight to bil…”
Insight
Ward: Strong sales teams can mask a lack of product-market fit
“One of the biggest mistakes that startups and CEOs when they launch new products make is they have such a great sales motion. They can push a product out to market that doesn't have a strong product market fit, but it feels like it does initially. And then it'…”
Insight
Ward's AI rules: No prompt interfaces, must enable impossible experiences
“What I tell the team about how to build AI products is you got to follow two rules. One is differentiated customer experience that we couldn't do before AI existed. Like you do something for the customer that literally we could not have done a year ago. Just, …”
Insight
Ward: AI's biggest feature is debuggability, not intelligence
“I think the biggest feature of AI is not that it's smart it's that it's debuggable.”
Insight
Ward: Selling software to startups prepares companies to sell to anyone
“If you can build a software company selling to startups you can build a software company selling to anybody.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ward: Carta will be synonymous with PE infrastructure in 3 to 5 years
“My expectation, my hope is in three to five years, how Carta is sort of synonymous with infrastructure for venture in three to five years, it'll be synonymous with infrastructure for PE.”
Insight
Ward: VC has global network effects, while PE is strictly local
“What makes venture unique as an asset class for us is that it has what I'll call a global topology. You know, you bring a company on to Carta because all the investors are minority holders. They bring a bunch of investors. They bring 20 investors. And then tho…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ward: Private equity and credit will drive Carta's growth for next 2-5 years
“We're on the second half of an S-curve in venture, but the beginning of an S-curve in private equity and private credit. And that's driving a lot of the, I think the next two to five years of growth.”
Insight
Ward: Carta needs PE for $1B ARR, new assets for $3B
“If we get to a billion bucks, I think it's cause we caught fire in private equity. If we get to two to three billion bucks, it means we've gotten into other asset classes.”
Insight
Ward: Managing to outputs instead of inputs stalls growth
“I think when we get into trouble or most companies get in trouble is when they focus on the outputs, they're looking, they're trying to strive the numbers that,
Are really outputs of something else.
and what happens is they lose sight of what that something e…”
Insight
Ward: Startups must separate controllable alpha from market beta
“Alpha is what we consider things that we have control over, and beta is things that we don't. So beta is like market. You know, if we lose a customer because they're going out of business or, you know, the market's down, that's beta. You know, it affects our o…”
Insight
Ward: Internal product portfolio management operates like venture capital
“I think product portfolio management in companies is much like Venture Live.”
Insight
Ward: Dominate ignored small markets, then expand concentrically
“And that's always been our thesis is start in small markets, win something that nobody else cares about, and then concentrically grow.”
Insight
Ward: VC is highly volatile due to LIFO allocator behavior
“Venture is very volatile as an asset class because it's the tail end of the whip. It's the last asset class allocators allocate to. So they start with bonds, then they go to public equities, then they'll go to real estate, you know, then they'll go to credit, …”
Disclosure
Ward: Carta expects to complete 2-3 M&A deals per year
“We'll probably do two or three deals this year, another two or three next year.”
Insight
Ward: Scaling means building an institution that builds products people want
“When you get to this stage, what you realize is your job is still to build products and sell them. That, that is the most important thing you do. But your job is also to build a company that can do it for you. And that's actually really hard. It's hard enough …”
Disclosure
Ward: Carta uses automated AI agents overnight to catch software bugs
“So now we have agents all night going through testing all the different possible things that a customer might do the next morning when they wake up, and then we catch the errors before they do.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ward: Carta is growing ARR by over 20% at scale
“And now we're, you know, 20 plus percent grower at scale.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ward: Carta has 2,500 venture funds and 35,000 startups
“Yeah, about 2500 venture funds, about 35,000 startups.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ward: Private equity market size is 6-8x venture capital
“The market size of private equity is six to eight times the size of venture.”
Disclosure
Ward: Carta pivoted from $6K startup deals to $1M PE software
“We started with a sales team that sold, you know, 6000 dollar cap tables to 24 year old founders in hoodies you know, in Soma. And now we're selling million dollar accounting solutions to middle aged CFOs in midtown.”
Disclosure
Ward: I spend half my time leading AI initiatives at Carta
“Today I spend half my time on product and the other half on AI projects at Carta and all the AI projects come in two forms. One is how do we use AI to build differentiated user experiences for our customers? So it's all in the product side. And then how do we …”
Disclosure
Ward: Carta tracks operational inputs over output metrics internally
“Internally, I try never to talk about those things cause those are the outputs of the business.
we spend all our time talking about the inputs of the business and what are the various flywheels of Carta.”