The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Weisburd: Money managers sell diversification to increase fees and importance
“Essentially, money managers sell diversification as a way to increase their own importance and also to increase fees, some would argue.”
Weisburd sells his positions when SoftBank invests in his portfolio companies
“As a general rule, when SoftBank would invest in one of my companies, I would sell my position or a lot of the position.”
Weisburd: VC Is the Worst Asset Class Outside the Top Quartile
“Venture capital is also the worst asset class on the planet as well. There's not many funds where you can invest and you could lose money or lose like half your money. So venture capital is all about getting into the top, top quartile and getting to those top …”
Weisburd: 2023 and 2024 will be among the largest VC fund vintages
“There were super bullish in 2021, and then they leave, you know, 20, 23, 20, 24, which I believe will be some of the largest vintages.”
Weisburd: Power laws in VC end around a $100M valuation
“Power laws pretty much end at about a hundred million dollar valuation, right? Depending on obviously like whether stuff will expand, you can't invest out a five hundred million dollar valuation, get a thousand X. It's just the math. Math doesn't work”
Weisburd: Fund scaling attracts the majority of institutional capital despite dilution
“One of the paradoxes of asset management is that as your fund scales, you actually become more attractive to the majority of capital in the markets, not the majority of LPs, but the majority of capital, and you start to get phone calls from people like CalPERS…”
Weisburd: The idea that VC performance takes 15 years to evaluate is idiotic
“A lot of people say, you don't know until year 15 whether you're good at VC. That's completely idiotic because you obviously have people marking you up. Once you get to a series B, you could sell via secondary. So whether or not you choose to sell does not mea…”
Weisburd: DPI is ground truth for VC returns, but a lagging indicator
“So I think DPI is important. And DPI is kind of like ground truth. Like it's an equalizer. You could be the worst marketer in the world, but eventually like your DPI will catch up. Right? So it is a great equalizer is the most empirical fact, but it is a highl…”
Weisburd: Selling 10% to 20% of big winners generates DPI to raise next fund
“I think you sell 10, 10, 15, 20%. A lot of LGPs get short-term greedy. They're like, well, I wanted to let it ride and get more carry. Well, first of all, I could go down to zero. But secondly, if they're really thinking, you know, strategically, that DPI will…”
Weisburd: 15 companies is an optimal venture portfolio size
“I don't actually recommend 10. I think 15 is a good number.”
Weisburd: A 25-company $10M fund yields 3x easily, but 20x rarely
“If you have a portfolio of 25 in your, let's say, ten million dollar solo GP, the odds of you being a three X fund are high, if you're competent. The odds of you being a 20 X fund are low.”
Weisburd: Venture Capital Is an Access Class, Not an Asset Class
“One thing that is probably the most found foundational part about the venture capital ecosystem is venture capital is truly an access class, not an asset class.”
Weisburd: Investors should allocate capital in six-to-seven-year increments
“One key thing is to always be in the market, always be time diversified. And there's a very actionable way to do that, which is you make sure you invest in six to seven year increments. So you're putting in a sixth of your money every year to make sure that yo…”
Weisburd: In five years nobody will say they invest in AI
“There may be a future where AI is the same thing, where you, nobody in five years will say I invest in AI, just like somebody won't say I invest in tech, just seen as the entire industry.”
Weisburd: Founders Fund invests up to 25% of a fund in single positions
“He puts in every fund founders fund, I think puts up to 25%. Somebody could correct me, but up to 25%, a single position, they've done that with SpaceX, Airbnb, all these, you know, iconic companies.”
Weisburd: Benchmark proves high returns are possible by not scaling fund size
“You only have to look as far as benchmark to see what returns are possible for platforms that do not scale.”
Weisburd: LPs lack true returns data to evaluate VCs until Fund 4
“What's kind of crazy about VC is that you don't really know until fund four. Why is that? Because you typically are raising in two, three year increments. So you don't really know. You don't really have DPI until let's say fund three. So you don't know. You do…”
Weisburd: 10X Capital sold heavily in 2021 due to crazy valuations
“We sold a lot of stuff in 20, 21. We didn't time the market perfectly, but we did sell a lot just because we thought pricing were crazy.”