The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
Friedberg: Wealth taxes will trigger capital flight and unrest without solving problems
“It'll cause people to flee and run around and get away and it'll cause more discontent, but it doesn't solve the policy problems.”
Friedberg predicts Ro Khanna will be HUD Secretary under President AOC
“I think he'll likely end up being secretary of housing and urban development. If AOC is elected president.”
Friedberg: CBO Projects Social Security Runs Out of Money in Five Years
“We have five years till Social Security is bankrupt. That's not my assessment. That's the CBO score. Like, that's what the CBO says is gonna happen. Congressional Budget Office. When you look at how much is going to get paid out and what the pay in rate is, so…”
Friedberg: US billionaires hold $8T of $183T wealth while bottom 50% hold $4T
“And I was surprised that the billionaires had eight trillion dollars of the 183, and the bottom 50% have four trillion. That's a bad statistic. But it's not as crazy as you would think. And even if you make it a fifty million dollar net worth, it's 23 trillion…”
Friedberg predicts a chaotic four-way political battle leading up to 2028
“This next wave in the, between now and twenty-twenty-eight, it's gonna be fucking chaos in America. It's gonna be AOC and the socialist wing versus Gavin and the centrist wing versus the kind of Republican mainline versus the Republican ultra-Rike angry nation…”