The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Power: Kalshi's 18% odds on Trump reviving manufacturing are severely underpriced
“I think the answer is yes. I think the answer is yes. I would take that bet. I think they're selling, you know, dollars for 18 cents.”
Power: The US lacks the capability to produce munitions rapidly
“As well as in the munitions categories where there's not much innovation to be done, but you just need to be able to produce a lot very fast, and we just don't have that capability in the U.S. Anymore.”
Power: Pursuing 100% manufacturing automation creates inflexible systems and is a bad idea
“And we are never going to be like fully, fully automated. Cause like Tesla tried to do this. SpaceX tried to do this. It's just like a bad idea. Cause you build this inflexible system. It's just super brittle.”