why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Frontier tech companies are growing 100% at multi-billion-dollar run rates
“I mean, these companies are compounding it over a hundred percent year over year in the billions of run rate. We have never seen that before, right?”
Opinion
Moore: Massive valuations for OpenAI and Anthropic can still generate fund-level multiples
“And so when you look at investment like open AI at thirty billion or anthropic at sixty billion, you know, I can tell you these are opportunities that I personally believe have the upside to generate multiples versus say IRR.”
Opinion
Moore: Billion-dollar checks in frontier AI could return up to $20B
“Is these are opportunities where you can invest 500 to a billion dollars in one of these companies, and if your underwriting plays out, potentially turn that into, you know, three, five, 10, maybe even twenty billion dollars if these companies turn out to be m…”
Opinion
Moore: $50M to $70M valuation caps are untenable for $30M seed funds
“This can become untenable very quickly for these smaller funds, where, you know, investing at 50, 60, 70 caps is, you know, pretty hard to imagine how you make a lot of money as an, ah, you know, a thirty million dollar fund, for example.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: SpaceX, Anduril, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reach trillion-dollar valuations
“These companies that could be worth trillions of dollars someday. The SpaceX's, the Anduril's, the OpenAI's, the Anthropics.”
Insight
Moore: Megafunds expand into private credit due to unfair insights into tech
“And I think that to the extent these new products get introduced to the industry, it's gonna be because they see an unfair advantage, ah, in their ability to deliver on that because they have this unique insight into, like, what these companies really need and…”
Insight
Moore: A compelling venture brand can only be forged at early stages
“None of this matters if you don't have a compelling brand that I believe can only be forged at the earliest stages.”
Insight
Moore: Picking an investor is like hiring a general contractor, not marriage
“Because if you marry wrong, it's tragic, but you can get a divorce, right? You can make a change. Once you pick a general contractor, and I know this from personal experience, having remodeled the house with my wife a couple years ago, you are stuck with that …”
Insight
Moore: Founders should take contained investor meetings when not actively fundraising
“Don't not take investor meetings because you're not raising. And the reason for that is because you can do it in a contained way that allows you to understand what these people are about and who they are and do you vibe with them or not? And I think the proble…”
Insight
Moore: Formal board seats are usually unnecessary until Series A
“That said it's not clear to me that, that construct needs to exist at seed and pre-seed in a way that necessarily, like, makes the company better off. And so typically what I see is that there are cases where, like, the founder wants to form a board, they want…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: Certain VC funds use high valuations as a lever to win
“There are definitely certain funds that come to mind that I won't name who have decided the strategy that they're going to employ is to use valuation as a lever to win.”
Insight
Moore: Junior investors mistakenly invest in startups purely matching their market maps
“The big mistake that some investors make, especially earlier in their career, because thesis driven work is, is a little bit easier to do than say developing relationships with people, which takes a lot longer. Is they tend to go and find the best company that…”
Insight
Moore: VCs who stop browsing Hacker News and Reddit should retire
“The moment I lose the desire to go on Hacker News or go on Reddit or go on X and just figure out what's going on in the world and what people I don't know that I should get to know, that's the moment that I should probably hang up my cleats and move on because…”
Opinion
Moore: ASI is already here in tools like OpenAI's Deep Research
“Look, for me, I think ASI is here in narrow pockets, right? Like when I use deep research, like I've seen the future. It's just absolutely incredible.”
Insight
Moore: Deciding which founders to pursue is the limiting factor in venture
“The limiting factor is really who do you choose to do that work with, right? You cannot do it with 20 different companies at once. And so there is this element of taste and picking that goes into that that I think you actually have to take very, very seriously…”
Opinion
Moore: Current AI is a lifetime economic opportunity even if progress halts
“I think what I mean to say by making the bold statement that ASI appears to be here in some sense is that I think if progress were to grind to a screeching halt, we still have what I believe to be like the most incredible economic opportunity of our lifetime i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI agents will likely use both native protocols and human web browsing
“There's a version of this actually happening kind of in AI agents as well, which is, like, will the agents browse the internet like humans do, which is sort of the humanoid side of things, or will we be Changing how the internet works so that agents can intera…”
Insight
Moore: Launching a new venture fund takes 15 to 18 months minimum
“Figuring out who that person would be minimum a six month process. The fundraising process thereafter would take Nine to 12 months.”
Insight
Moore: Departing partners typically transition startup board seats back to their firm
“As personal a relationship as I have with each founder I work with, I have to remind myself that I was representing Kleiner Perkins on the board of all these companies that I served on, and I think with that, now that I've moved over to Lightspeed, there's thi…”
Insight
Moore: VC carry vests just like startup equity during partner departures
“You can think of carry similar to the way a startup employee vests equity, right? So they, they're given an equity grant. That equity grant vests over some time period over multiple years. You can think of venture carry as similar. And so the reason for that, …”
Disclosure
Moore invested in an unannounced AI app startup before leaving Kleiner Perkins
“There's a recent investment that I made before leaving Kleiner Perkins that of course I'm really excited about. And it hasn't been announced yet, so I can't name the name of the company, but I think it does speak to this, which is this company is building in, …”