The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Armstrong: AI will not cause high unemployment
“I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment. I think that employment will be about the same.”
Armstrong: In 5-10 Years Everyday Financial Services Will Run on Crypto Rails
“I think in five or 10 years, people are going to be using financial services. A lot of it will be running on crypto rails. They won't even really know or care about crypto itself. They just like, oh, this is a cheaper way to send money abroad to my family, or …”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Armstrong: Human-in-the-loop investment data will be a real moat for Coinbase
“And then we can start to build that data set over time, which I think will be a real moat.”
Armstrong: Master AI agents will orchestrate sub-agents and pay for services autonomously
“In the future, you're increasingly gonna Talk to one agent. That agent is going to orchestrate hundreds of thousands of other agents. It's going to pay for goods and services with companies that it needs to engage with to get work done on your behalf.”
Armstrong: OpenAI and Anthropic will not enter regulated financial services
“Ah, well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated f…”
Armstrong: Top companies will become more productive with AI, not displaced
“I think the best companies are just going to get even more efficient like Coinbase is doing. And if there's companies that fail to Integrate AI, then they could be, they could get left behind, but the best companies in every industry are just going to be even …”
Armstrong: 80% of Coinbase AI workloads will run on cheap models within 18 months
“So I, my guess is that within 12 to 18 months, 80% of our workloads will be going toward models that are 99, 99% cheaper, but 20% of it will still go to these frontier models where you need to be, you know, IQ maxing or whatever you want to call it.”