why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lamm: Woolly mice are second most genetically modified organisms behind dire wolves
“These are the second most genetically modified
Multicellular organisms on the planet after our direwolves.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lamm: ViaGen cloning efficiency reached 80% versus 2% industry norm
“Well, Viagen had like cloning efficiencies at 80%, or most people are at two percent, right?”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lamm: Colossal could eradicate the screwworm problem in six to seven months
“Our solution, which is already made could eradicate the entire problem in every model that we've done in six to seven months.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ben Lamm: AI will enable a real-time digital twin of nature
“My hottest take right now is that I think AI is gonna converge, and, ah, we are going to build a digital twin of nature, and just like we have prediction models for, like, everything from, like, missile defense to, ah, tsunamis and earthquakes, we're gonna hav…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lamm: Colossal achieved world-record multiplex gene editing in healthy woolly mice
“We had a hundred percent healthy mice born with exactly the predicted phenotypes with the most multiplex edited delivered at one time ever.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Lamm: Colossal grew mammoth hair follicles from elephant stem cells
“We actually have a hair follicles growing in, in where we've taken elephant stem cells and created follicles so that we can grow mammoth hair.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Lamm: Colossal raised $635M total after $400M round oversubscribed
“Yeah, 6:35 total. The last round was supposed to be 200, and it got overscribed to 400.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lamm: Invasive species represent a half-trillion-dollar global problem
“So invasive species is like half a trillion dollar problem globally.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lamm: Colossal owns the world's largest elephant dataset
“Well, we have the largest data set on elephants in the entire world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lamm: Somatic cell nuclear transfer embryology will be automated with robotics
“But in the future, that whole process will be automated with robotics.”
Assertion Supported
Lamm: Claude Opus cannot perform ancestral state reconstruction or comparative genomics
“Turns out that like, you know, Opus doesn't do like an ancestral state reconstruction of like a genome and like it doesn't like build comparative genomics models.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lamm: 20% of baby elephants die from EEHV
“Most people don't know that 20% of baby elephants die because of EEHV.”
Assertion Supported
Lamm: No Megalodon DNA exists and Colossal is not reviving it
“There is no Megalodon DNA and if there was, it would be terrible to make, I mean, the ocean's scary enough, but we do get the request of Megalodon quite a bit. We're not working on Megalodon.”