The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vance: SpaceX has lapped Blue Origin for 20 years, taking over rockets
“The difference between SpaceX and something like Blue Origin that started about the same time you know, I think Blue Origin's, like, coming on now, but they've had 20 years where SpaceX has just been lapping them, it's, like, taken over the entire rocket busin…”
Ashlee Vance: Worthwhile Hardware Breakthroughs Require 10 to 12 Years
“It seems like all the really good, the biggest things I've ever covered, they all take 10 to 12 years. I think Silicon Valley, sometimes you have this overnight sensation kind of thing where you see Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg turn up when they're 26 and the…”
Vance: Bryan Johnson genuinely revels in public criticism rather than acting
“He was actually when I first met him, I mean, he was so, you know, the reputation was he was really sensitive to criticism and he was kind of like thin skinned and since he got famous, he just like revels at all these people crapping on him. And I don't actual…”
Vance: Bryan Johnson genuinely understands the science behind longevity
“And so I think some people sometimes question like, Does he know the science at all? He, like, really does. I mean he can, like, it's impressive. He can talk at length about all this stuff.”
Vance: Quantum and fusion founders often overconvince themselves of their progress
“They're probably like the two areas where I feel the least comfortable trying to tell what's real from what's not real, because everybody's raised a ton of money, and it seems like serious people that are doing it, and they're smart people, and then you just c…”
Vance: Fabricating qubits is now something almost every quantum startup can do
“Now it seems like just about everybody can, Make cubits. They can make quite a few of them.”
Vance: One million physical qubits yield roughly one thousand useful logical qubits
“There's this weird thing with quantum computing where you have to use all these funky software techniques to do this error correction stuff, and so if you have a million qubits, it comes down to about, like, A thousand are really, really useful for what you're…”
Vance: Silicon Valley went from ignoring Bryan Johnson to actively seeking him out
“Like he used to come to Silicon Valley and nobody would meet with him and he could never raise money for everything. And then now I see him walk into these rooms and everyone's like wants to talk to Brian, but they also, they're all trying to learn how to live…”
Vance: George Hotz built a self-driving car alone in one month
“George Hotz built, like, a self-driving car on his own in, in, like, a month.”
Vance: Musk Left Neuralink at 1 AM for xAI with a 4 AM Meeting
“We were at Neuralink filming something for a movie I'm making, and we were there until Like one in the morning, and then he went straight from there back to XAI. And then I had a friend who had a meeting with him at like four AM, I think.”