why aren't all 26 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brex will surpass Concur's $1.5B revenue mark through interchange monetization
“If Brex continues on our current run rate, like we're going to eclipse that much, much faster by winning their customers, but monetizing through the interchange, not through generic software revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Brex is the only next-gen card company owning its financial infrastructure
“The way that we differentiate against our competitors is the fact that we're the only next gen Category-defining company that owns our own financial infrastructure. Vertically integrated, so to speak. And what that means is getting super technical is that we d…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Majority of Brex revenue comes from interchange fees despite multiple products
“And so when you think about Brex and what we're doing, the majority of our revenue is through interchange, even though we have a number of other product lines.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Amex acquired spend startup Center for $600M at under $20M revenue
“Amex bought a company called Center that had less than twenty million of revenue for six hundred million.”
Assertion Supported
Capital One's Discover acquisition creates the largest US credit card issuer
“The first one that comes to mind is Capital One and Discover. Huge deal. This is not a tuck in. This like materially changes their whole business model. And the reason is because it creates the largest credit card issuer by loan volume, because it allows Capit…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mature Brex cohorts spend 60% more than they did on Amex
“For mature cohorts, Customers are spending 60% more on their Brex cards than they were on Amex in the last month that they were on Amex.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sequoia's Shaun Maguire helped structure Stripe's acquisition of Bridge
“I mean, like one of the most interesting parts about the Stripe bridge deal was that it seemed that the, one of the investors from Sequoia on both boards was like pretty instrumental in helping to get that deal done, which you don't see very often. And it's a …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
B2B stablecoin adoption will take much longer than consumer adoption
“Of course, stable coins will become a mainstay for B to B companies, but I believe it will take a lot longer.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only 22% of spend on Brex is travel and entertainment
“When you look at the spend on Brex, actually only 22% of it is what we call T and E spend.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DoorDash spends many multiples more on Brex than it did on Amex
“DoorDash, one of our beachhead customers, they've been on Brex for now three years. They're spending many multiples more on Brex than they were on their American Express.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brex has multiple business lines each generating over $100M in revenue
“We now are a multi-product company in the sense of we have more than two business lines at over a hundred million in revenue.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Brex's enterprise business is growing over 100% with 130% net revenue retention
“So I'm very proud that our enterprise business is growing over a hundred percent and our NRR in the segment is over a 130%.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025
“Obviously Trump is pretty loud on X and on Trump social around like pushing rate cuts, but I don't think Powell's gonna give into that. So my gut says two.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Waymo will be operating in six cities by the end of 2025
“I think that I love the product, but also it seems like the speed at which they're iterating is increasing. So I'm going to go with six.”
Assertion Supported
Google X spinoff Iyo is suing Jony Ive and OpenAI
“There was a lawsuit against a company called IO that or sorry, the company called IO that spun out of Google X is suing John Ives and OpenAI, and that was a headphone company, like an earbud company.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
The AI device from Jony Ive and OpenAI will be an earbud
“So I think it's going to be an earbud.”
Assertion Supported
Levy: Brex partnered with First Republic in 2018 against SVB
“We just signed a partnership with First Republic Bank. And I said, okay, interesting, but aren't you guys like a, Year old startup. And he's like, yeah, they want to compete more with Silicon Valley bank, who has an all in one suite of banking and corporate ca…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sixty percent of Brex customers are non-digitally native businesses
“So one stat that we're super proud of is now, 60% of our companies are outside of what we call like digitally native companies, which I think is a big accomplishment given how, how old we are.”
Assertion Partly supported
Carta data shows early-stage tech acquisitions are up 200% year-over-year
“Essentially there's 200 plus companies in tech that are like seed all the way to series B that have been acquired year to date, which is up 200% year over year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Levy: Billion-dollar-plus tech M&A is up 68% year-to-date
“Billion-dollar-plus tech M&A is up 68% year-to-date.”
Assertion Partly supported
Paylocity acquired Airbase for $300M with approximately $15M in revenue
“Paylocity bought a company called Airbase for three hundred million, and they had about, I think it was like fifteen million of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brex and Navan had 2,000 mutual customers before launching their partnership
“Navon, literally the president over there, Michael, he's become a good friend of mine, came to us a year and a half ago, and we had like 2000 mutual customers”
Assertion Partly supported
Stripe and Shopify were each valued at $1B when they partnered
“Stripe did a partnership with Shopify and they were both actually valued at a billion dollars when that partnership started in around 2013, 20, 14 ish.”
Assertion Supported
Levy: Total US commercial corporate card spend is $2 trillion annually
“There's about two trillion dollars of us commercial corporate card spent. And so what that represents is the top 100 issuing banks on MasterCard and Visa plus Amex commercial card volume is around two trillion a year.”
Assertion Supported
Over 200 public companies currently use Brex
“200 plus public market companies on Brex today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Scale AI was Brex's first customer and received a hand-delivered card
“So Scale AI was our first customer. Pedro and Enrique hand delivered the card to Alex in their offices.”