The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Kolicich: Expect an AI crash and market retrenchment within two years
“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”
Kolicich: Open-source AI iteration speed will surpass closed source
“Cause you'll see the case of iteration at open source is going to eclipse close source.”
Kolicich predicts wave of VC firings over failure to adapt to AI
“And so I think you'll see over the next 10 years, a lot of retirements, a lot of firings, perhaps because people won't make that transition,”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
AI will hit a trough of disillusionment as revenue lags infrastructure buildout
“And that kind of starts to tell you that we make it close to the trough of disillusionment at some point where all this, you know, the infrastructure that was built and the idea is build it and they will come. You know, the people actually don't come. The reve…”
The capped defense budget will yield only tens of new primes
“I think we probably think it's a little overhyped in general, where we think it's real for sure, but it's not going to be an opportunity the size of software or AI or something like that. The defense budget is naturally limited as a percentage of the economy. …”
Kolicich: Venture capital will shrink over five years unless AI takes off
“I don't think it's gonna, you know, the space is gonna crash or everybody leave overnight, but I think just slowly over the next five years, unless AI really takes off, you'll see a general shrinking of venture capital, I think”
The future of software is human-in-the-loop symbiosis, not fully autonomous AGI
“And so that would mean the future of software looks more like man-machine symbiosis. Then it does AGI, you know, the computer does everything for you.”
Fewer venture capital firms will raise opportunity or growth funds going forward
“I do think fewer people will raise opportunity funds or growth funds. I think that is likely.”
Institutional buyers will emerge for $500M single-position venture fund secondaries
“I think there's a big opportunity for someone to come in and say, Hey, I'll take this position. I know it's good. I'll, you know, buy half a billion dollars worth of it at some slight discount. That's a gap that doesn't exist in the market today, but I think s…”
Kolicich: AI will automate back-office paper pushing over software development
“I think you'll see a lot more deployment in back office jobs at industrials or any vertical Industry, you know, I mean, even if you look at healthcare, on the RCO side, there's like faxes and people faxing papers all over, like, the world still runs a lot of p…”