The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Incumbent software systems will capture AI value through existing data gravity
“So I think if that happens and that's what the world looks like, then a LLM looks kind of like a query processor in a database. You give it context, it does its work, you get the answer out. But the point of leverage is the place with, at which the context Liv…”
AI startups should aggressively raise capital every three to four months
“If you are in AI or AI adjacent, you should be raising every three to four months, in my opinion, and you should be doing it aggressively.”
Kolicich: Big Tech's Low AI Pricing Will Hurt Competing Startups
“Big tech is doing a good job of anchoring the price of all these features pretty low, like co-pilots, 20 dollars a month per developer. It's incredibly cheap relative to the value that it does add. And that really anchors, you know, value in that market pretty…”
Kolicich: Big Tech Subsidizing Open Source AI Is Hard for Startups
“They're really subsidizing the space, a lot of big tech, which I think is positive for open source and positive for users, hard for startups.”
Cloud giants must host foundation models even if they become low-margin commodities
“Microsoft doesn't care if the margins and foundation models are 80% or 30%. They can't lose that layer, right? Even if it's a commodity, it needs to be a commodity on Azure. Same thing with Amazon. Needs to be a commodity on AWS.”
Traditional defense primes excel at explosives but fail at software and AI
“Defense primes are good at aeronautics. They're good at explosives. You know, I tend to, I always say, like, they're good at boom. Don't compete on boom. What they're bad at generally is software, is AI, is autonomy.”
Successful defense tech startups are rarely founded by industry outsiders
“Most of these companies I mentioned that we invested in are started by people who were actually at one of these successful companies, Endural, Palantir, or SpaceX before, or who were in military service themselves, and they know sort of the landscape. It's ver…”
Software will shift from manual workflows to platforms supervising AI agents
“This sort of like supervisor worker type paradigm where it's not workflow software, it's supervisor software where you supervise the agents.”
Kolicich: Crossover funds exerted a 20x leverage effect on venture cap tables
“When A tiny girl or somebody else deploys money onto a cap table. They might say own five percent of that cap table, and they'll have, their dollars will have a leverage effect on the ecosystem as a whole. Because while they buy five percent of the company, th…”
Kolicich: Software incumbents hold the advantage over thin AI wrapper startups
“Incumbents have the advantage. Where in most cases, you are a thin layer on top of open AI and that's okay. And in that case, if you have distribution to users and you make that value transparent to them, you already hold their data. That's going to be a great…”