The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,819 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mueller predicts Deneb will be the highest-performing hydrocarbon engine ever
“This engine will probably be the highest performing hydrocarbon engine ever flown because it's, it has a very high area ratio.”
Mueller predicts global compute infrastructure will eventually move to space
“Compute will need to move to space at some point.”
Ding: Software companies must go headless to compete for agent traffic
“I think you have to, because I think a lot of times not for all software, but for some software, like you're not going to have time to make a decision for what vendors you use.
[1925] Shensi Ding: We notice this with packages a lot, also in cloud code, scarily…”
Feig: AI Startups Raising at 100x–1,000x Multiples Will Face Failure and Layoffs
“We know specifically, like we know the numbers, we know sales figures for some of these companies raising at Hundreds of millions to billions, and again, we're looking at thousand x to, you know, hundred to thousand x multipliers, like, a lot of these companie…”
Tandon: Healthcare LLMs will improve outcomes enough to lower malpractice premiums
“That yes, occasionally you have, like, weird performance, but on the averages, and like in the 99% of cases, it improves outcomes so much that the malpractice implications are actually very net positive, and I think because of that, you will, you should see a …”
Tandon: General Catalyst bought Summa Health as it faced impending bankruptcy
“And part of that means going to Akron, Ohio, buying a system that was on track to go bankrupt in, in the next couple of years and transforming it with AI.”
Tandon: AI agents will execute end-to-end EMR tasks autonomously this year
“And this year you're going to see agents where you give it a task in an EMR and it just goes and does all the work and dollars show up at the other end of it.”
Rangwalla: Individuals will run hundreds to thousands of AI agents within two years
“If you or me in, in a year or two, we're gonna have a claw that's running hundreds of agents at all time. I'm gonna have a similar impact at work. I'm gonna have hundreds, maybe thousands of agents running at all time.”
Rangwalla: Individual semiconductor footprints will expand 10x due to AI agents
“Your footprint, you're like a semiconductor or technology footprint as an individual is about to expand by like 10 X because you used to have a couple of devices. Maybe you're someone has an iPad too. So you have X a little more, but like three or four devices…”
Rangwalla: Rise of AI agents is driving massive CPU and memory demand
“And so I think that that is just creating a massive need for more CPUs and more memory. And we're seeing that we're actually just at the beginning of that. I think agents is really what is driving that.”
Rangwalla: AI Hardware Ratios May Flip to 4 CPUs per GPU
“Now, the ratio is actually moving from, to one CPU to four GPUs, and so it's improved kind of by two x already, and we think it actually has a chance to flip the opposite direction, which is one GPU to four CPUs, and so, and some people, very aggressive, say t…”
Rangwalla: Samsung and SK Hynix Generate More Cash Flow Than Hyperscalers
“Samsung and Hynix together generate more cash flow than every hyperscaler.”
Rangwalla: AI buildout will put skilled trade jobs in pole position
“There's a lot of companies that we look at that are massive shortages the amount of labor that they have, and it's not one type of labor, it's a lot of different types of skilled labor, but which usually means that the salaries for those jobs are gonna go up t…”
Adcock: Figure robots run entirely on Helix vision-language-action model
“You can't write code to make this work. So all of our robots here run on a neural network we call Helix. It's a vision language action model we designed here internally to tell the robot what to go do, to stay balanced, like how to move its joints basically fr…”
Adcock: Figure's data collection will generalize across global environments
“Our hypothesis now is that we will see enormous amount of positive transfer from the data collection efforts we're doing now into pre-training across, like, basically any environment in the world.”
Adcock: AGI might be achieved first in humanoid robotic embodiments
“So in some way I think we'll get to at or even beyond human level intelligence in these systems. It actually might be the case that we get to artificial general intelligence first in these embodiments.”
Adcock: Figure will reach full lights-out manufacturing where robots build robots
“At some point here, it'll just be like it'll just be full lights out manufacturing. We'll have like robots only building robots and sending out to the world. Robots will be getting into boxes themselves. Other robots will be boxing them up and we'll be shippin…”
Figure is not teleoperating its humanoid robots, says founder Brett Adcock
“We're not teleoperating this stuff.”
Adcock: Humanoid robots are working now in living rooms and commercial settings
“We just want humanoid robots to work, and like, they're working now. It's pretty simple. Like, we're seeing robots to do everyday things. Like, we saw it clean up a living room, do commercial work.”
Adcock: Solving humanoid robotics will create the world's largest business
“It's if you can solve this, it'll build the biggest business in the world by like a large factor.”
Adcock: No humanoid robot has demonstrated 7-10 failure-free autonomous hours daily
“I want to be able to put a robot into a home and be able to do, like, seven to 10 hours of work successfully without failures, with, like, to know, like, with no human intervention and do that every day forever. It's just, like, a hard problem. Nobody's ever s…”
Harrison: $1M in Ukrainian Drones Destroyed a Third of Russia's Bomber Fleet
“So in Ukraine, there was this, I think it was called Operation Spiderweb, where, ah, Ukraine snuck basically like under false floorboards of a truck. They snuck a million dollars of worth of drones into Russian territory. And then the drones basically took fli…”
US would run out of munitions in 11 days in China conflict
“If we were to engage in a large scale conflict, I think it's something like 11 days. Like, we would run out of munitions in 11 days.”
Harrison: U.S. Has Consistently Lost Wargames Against China Since 2015
“We have been effectively losing war games when they model the scenario of US versus China since, I think like, 2015. We have been, the US loses those war games.”
Harrison: Rebuilding Fleet Lost in China Conflict Would Take 25 Years
“Half of our naval fleet could be destroyed within the first couple months of a large-scale conflict with China, and it would take us 25 years to rebuild just to get back to where we were. So our shipbuilding capacity doesn't exist.”
Harrison: Conflict over Taiwan could cause a $10T global economic hit
“You look at a conflict over Taiwan, I think people say could be a 10 trillion dollar hit to the global economy. Like bigger than the financial crisis, COVID, anything. I think in some cases combined.”
Harrison: Index Ventures bars weapons investments and militarizing portfolio drones
“Index, as far as I know, still to this day, has a clause where they can't invest in anything that is a weapon or could be used as a weapon, and I remember they had investments in, in companies like a drone company, where they uniquely could have contracted a p…”
Bry: Skydio has rapidly declining capital needs unlike AI peers
“We're in the very rare and hard earned position amongst robotics and AI companies of actually having rapidly declining capital needs.”
Bry: Skydio's biggest and fastest-growing business is civilian, not defense
“Our biggest, fastest growing businesses are in the civilian sector. They're not in defense.”
Bry: Within five years, drones will respond to 911 calls nationwide
“I think a default expectation in five years is if there's an emergency, you call nine one, a drone shows up in a few seconds, and that's going to be everywhere in the US, hopefully everywhere in the world.”
Bry: SF auto theft dropped 42% after launching Skydio drone program
“San Francisco, I think, has seen a 42% reduction in auto theft since they launched their drone program.”
Bry: Chinese government sanctioned Skydio and blocked component suppliers
“A year and a half ago, we had the great honor of being sanctioned by the Chinese government, and it was a pretty aggressive action. They announced the sanctions, and then they showed up at the suppliers that we still had in China, shut them down, stop them fro…”
Bry: Expect 'pain and carnage' for recent wave of robotics investments
“I think that we are going to see a lot of pain and carnage on the investments and expectations that are being set in this sort of like most recent round of robotics companies, because it's just the physical world does not work the way the software world works.”
Taneja: Global Geopolitics Will Cause Defense Primes to Emerge Everywhere
“The geopolitics is going to force supply chains to shift. Does Europe really want to buy American defense products? Maybe some countries will, but the biggest ones won't. They want to create resilience. Does India really want to rely on Russia or America for t…”
Taneja: Anthropic restricted Mythos access to eliminate enterprise security debt
“They've had that model for a while. They did not release it. They thought a lot about it. And what did they do? They gave it to the companies to create an advantage to essentially eliminate you know, security debt in the existing infrastructure before more and…”
Abraham: Public has virtually zero churn and 25-year expected user lifetimes
“Because we're also building for portfolio builders, so people that actually just compound wealth over time, we essentially have no churn. Like, our lifetimes are like, 25 years plus. They literally, like, that, that line is just straight at some point, and jus…”
Abraham: AI will inevitably replace human financial advisors' advice and emotional support
“And AI, if you look at like agents what we've launched, that does number one now. And so two and three is going to be replaced as well. It's just a matter of time”
Abraham: Securities prediction markets will dramatically surpass US sports betting volumes
“My hunch would be that the volumes around that in the long term will be dramatically higher than what the market of sports betting is in the US.”
Exowatt targets 1 cent per kWh via mass-produced modular solar thermal units
“What's new really about our approach and our hypothesis is making this in a modular fashion, making this in a factory. And then scaling the production to millions and ultimately billions of these, which ultimately allows us to go down the cost curve and genera…”
Happi: Hyperscalers relying on gas burners will face major emission penalties
“Otherwise we're going to be left with tens or even, yeah, tens of gigawatts of Mac gas burners that are going to last for another 20 years, and they might be a quick fix now, but I think the hyperscalers know they're going to pay a price for this later, both i…”
Happi: Hyperscaler data center buildouts will keep scaling through 2030
“So I would say until 2030, there's no doubt that this is going to continue to scale at this rate. The question is like, what happens after 2030, and is it going to continue beyond that?”
Pure-Play Software Lacking Proprietary Data Will Be Replaced
“I think companies that have built software orally and just sell that software are very vulnerable. Like the bar for quality of software is going up rapidly... If you really hate some piece of software that you're using, And it's just software doesn't have some…”
Consumer AI Will Quickly Flush Out Fine-Print Business Models
“The willingness to put up with random obnoxious things like low quality or crappy terms or products that pretend to be something they're not, like all of that is just gonna get flushed out very quickly. And companies that have business models that are buried i…”
Younis: Applied Intuition will likely never operate in China
“China's the only country that I think we probably won't be in maybe ever, but certainly anytime soon.”
Miller: Public venture funds will become a multi-hundred-billion-dollar asset class
“I think that it's about creating like a multi hundred billion dollar category where you get millions of people investing in private tech companies and build this bridge between the two sides of the market.”
Miller: Every American will allocate 5% to public VC in 10 years
“I think that like 10 years from now, every single person in America will have five percent of their portfolio in like public venture capital. It'll be totally normal. It'll be like an ETF. It'll be just this thing that's standard and the public capital, so the…”
Miller predicts most mega venture firms like a16z will eventually go public
“The nature of these partnerships is eventually they want to monetize and the best way to monetize is go public. This happened in all the investment banks. They've all went public. And so Yeah, I mean, they'll, most of them will eventually go public, and then t…”
Miller predicts AI will displace 20% to 30% of white-collar jobs
“I think more than 20%, but less than 50. So like let's say 20 to 35 years, 20 to 30% of jobs are Not to, not, not just displaced, but also suppressed. So you don't make that marginal higher and that adds up to tens of millions of jobs.”