The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rao: True AI requires fundamental hardware substrate innovation
“My personal take is that we need innovation on the hardware substrate to actually build true intelligence. You're not going to get there with this sort of rudimentary thing that we have.”
Rao: Unconventional AI has very high chance of hitting 50x efficiency first go
“Are we going to hit a thousand X in the first go? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. There's a some percentage chance that we will hit it, but I think we're going to hit 50 X with a very high chance.”
Rao: True hardware innovation requires exploiting non-linear silicon physics
“What's really interesting is if something is linear and predictable, it actually is very easy to simulate. If you can simulate in a digital system, it's less interesting. It turns out, like, silicon has all these beautiful physics that are associated with it. …”
Rao: Unconventional AI Could Open a Computing Paradigm Lasting 80 Years
“I think we have the opportunity to completely open up a new paradigm that could exist for another 80 years.”
Bueller: Computing can shift from digital to analog like EVs replaced ICE
“Just like we had a flip from combustion engines to EV for some, not all of the world we can have a flip to analog.”
Rao: Unconventional AI will probably need $1.5B for its first product
“I think to get to actual first product, it's probably a billion and a half is my guess. And it sounds like a huge number, but I think the opportunity is enormous. So this initial money will get us through much of the exploration and sort of a product, not prod…”
Rao: Company efficiency drops precipitously above 80 to 100 people
“Efficiency drops Really precipitously as you go over, like, 80 to a hundred people. That's what I've seen over and over again.”