The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Randle: Gemini leads multimodal AI while Claude and GPT-5 lead coding
“The models at any given point are good at different things, and so Gemini is like the best multimodal model. You know, Claude typically has the best coding model, although now a lot of people think GPT-Five. Is actually better than the latest Opus model at cod…”
Ev Randle Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 26:04 Benchmark's AI Bets: Cerebras, Sierra, Legora, Fireworks, Starcloud, Gumloop.. · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Lamm: Claude Opus cannot perform ancestral state reconstruction or comparative genomics
“Turns out that like, you know, Opus doesn't do like an ancestral state reconstruction of like a genome and like it doesn't like build comparative genomics models.”
Ben Lamm Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 48:18 Race to Save Humanity: Inside $12B Colossal Biosciences & $3.8B Astromech
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pereyra: Competition among frontier and open-source models will check AI pricing
“And so I think the same thing will happen with the model providers, where it's like, if you look at Opus 4.7 and 5.5, Opus 4.7 is three times more expensive than 5.5, but it's, you know, 10 or 20% more performant. But like, these are going to cause pressure on…”
Gabe Pereyra Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 27:47 Harvey Co-Founder Gabe Pereyra on the Token Pricing Reckoning Coming for AI · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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