The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Patrick McGee Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 22:48 Apple in China: Tim Cook’s $275B Pledge | Patrick McGee · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Mignano predicts OpenAI is likely to announce an IPO
“Boring answer, but OpenAI.”
Michael Mignano Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 42:51 Why Lightspeed Bet on xAI, Neuralink, Suno, Granola, & Pika | Michael Mignano · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Armstrong: OpenAI and Anthropic will not enter regulated financial services
“Ah, well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated f…”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 47:18 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
The AI device from Jony Ive and OpenAI will be an earbud
“So I think it's going to be an earbud.”
Art Levy Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 1:32:38 Brex’s Road to IPO and The Golden Age of M&A · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Kim: Jony Ive and OpenAI device will resemble AirPods rather than glasses
“My guess it's an ambient device. I think it'll be closer to I AirPods of the world than glasses.”
Brian Kim Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 1:06:17 Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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