The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Liang: Nvidia GPUs are a commodity offering very limited cost advantage
“People forget, as much as NVIDIA costs, it's commodity. Right? Because what you offer is the same as what your neighbor offers and your differentiation is, I can save you a little bit of money because maybe I got a discount from NVIDIA, right? Or maybe I got a…”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Feldman: Nvidia uses investments to pressure clouds and builders against rival chips
“There are ways for NVIDIA to use their balance sheet to limit competition, right? That if they invest in, in a NeoCloud, right? The NeoCloud is less likely to use a non-NVIDIA chip. If they invest in a model builder there's pressure not to use other people's c…”
Liang predicts data centers will support only three to four AI chips
“As much as these data centers and service providers are heterogeneous, right, they're using different chips, NVIDIA and other chips, it's not going to be a hundred different chips. It might be two or three. Maybe three or four, right? That's as heterogeneous a…”
Tusk: Trillion-Dollar AI Spending Is Driven by Short-Term Share Prices
“I at least have a suspicion that all of this massive AI infrastructure investment. So it's 1.5 trillion in 20, 25 projected to be two trillion. In 20, 26 is really about the short-term share price and valuation of the big AI companies, the generative companies…”
Lin: OpenAI at $500 Billion Works If It Can Reach $5 Trillion
“Well, so it's easy to dismiss the 500 Billion and say that you can't make money from five hundred billion, but if we let NVIDIA, which is worth four trillion today, compound at 10% for another decade, it's going to be worth more than 10 trillion. So if OpenAI …”
Agrawal: AI Semis Generate $200B, While AI Apps Are Only Earning $40B
“Nvidia earned, Nvidia alone at the chip player earned roughly forty billion dollars in data center revenue in Q one last quarter. So analyze that's about a 160. Let's say the total industry is 170, 180, maybe let's say 200. The infra layer is 20, thirty billio…”
Josephs: Marjorie Taylor Greene bought major tech stocks surrounding tariff announcements
“She started buying the day after they paused it. The day before and the day after, on the eighth and ninth. She bought Apple, she bought Qualcomm, she bought Nvidia, AMD, ASML.”
Nvidia is not trading at dot-com bubble valuations on an earnings basis
“There's a lot of AI hype, but if you look at companies like Nvidia, they're actually not that expensive on an earnings basis. Like it's not, we're not in bubble territory, you know, Cisco, 2000 timeframe.”
Liang: Disaggregated inference across SambaNova, Nvidia, and Xeon is most efficient
“This aggregated inference that we talked about with NVIDIA chips, with Summono we've already used, with Xeons, Is just the most efficient way of actually deploying inference at scale”
Feldman warns enterprises and nations against depending entirely on Nvidia
“You shouldn't be dependent on, on NVIDIA. You shouldn't be dependent on one model maker. I think that that rarely works out well, right? What you'd like to be as a nation or as a big company is you'd like to have choices. And I don't know if you need to own al…”
Mignano: Earlier-stage AI startups should IPO to capture retail investor demand
“Maybe more AI companies should be going public because there's clearly a lot of demand for it. And if you're a public market, you know, if you're a public investor, a public market investor, a retail investor, you don't really have a lot of choices, right? You…”
Siddharth: Turing works with seven of the eight frontier AI labs
“We work with seven out of the eight Frontier Labs. We work with OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, anybody that's building a Frontier Foundation model, we are probably working with them already.”
Shadbolt: Jensen Huang's 15-to-30-year quantum timeline is likely accurate
“And I think he's probably right on average on that timeline.”
Taneja: Trillion-dollar companies will become routine
“We're going to have companies that are routinely trillion dollar companies.”
Barrett: Playground Backed Nervana for Writing Nvidia Microcode Better Than Nvidia
“We were lucky enough to host Naveen back in the day when it was Nirvana Systems, where we first invested because he, those guys were doing, before they had hardware, they were doing NVIDIA microcode better than NVIDIA was.”
Ramaswamy: Strong moats make new cloud hyperscalers unlikely to emerge
“It's very clear that it's not all that easy to make chips like NVIDIA. It is very clear that running operations as large as what the hyperscalers run for renting out compute, that's not that easy. It's very hard for a fourth, a fifth hyperscaler to come up.”
Clark: Five of the ten most valuable companies are hardware companies
“Even right now, five to 10 most valuable companies in the world are hardware companies. Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Tesla, TSMC.”
Shadbolt: PsiQuantum is collaborating with NVIDIA across multiple tracks
“We are actually working with NVIDIA on a whole bunch of different tracks.”
Shadbolt: NVIDIA is explicit about not building a quantum computer
“NVIDIA have been pretty explicit that they're not building a quantum computer, but they do see a whole bunch of opportunities to contribute to the ecosystem.”
O'Shea: Turing Reaches $300M+ Revenue and $2.2B Valuation Profitably
“Three hundred million plus in revenue and profitable. Two hundred and twenty-five million in funding at a last valuation of 2.2 billion. A network of four million engineers and customers that include OpenAI, NVIDIA, Anthropoc, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Salesfor…”
Public Nvidia and Snowflake positions informed Altimeter's private CoreWeave investments
“All of the private sort of, you know, investment in stuff that was going on in 2022 informed, you know, our public investment into NVIDIA and our public investment in NVIDIA helped inform our private investment into CoreWeave and our, you know, relationship wi…”