The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Banister: China will train AI on Western IP and sell output back
“And then what's really going to happen is China will sell our art back to us. So they're going to steal it all anyway, because they don't care. And they're just going to basically come back to us with these models, which we've seen with DeepSeek and everything…”
Liang: SambaNova serves 1.5T parameter models on one rack versus 10-20
“And so with sum it over, that minimum quantum is down to one rack. Right, where if you have other, other service providers, you just run, say, a DeepSeq model, which is now one and a half trillion parameters, just to run that, the minimum for some of the other…”
Siddharth: Reasoning models ended demand for simple AI data factories
“This industry had a huge shift after the reasoning models came out late last year, O-one being the first. The shift is, before the reasoning models, this industry needed simple data. Gobs and gobs of simple data. You needed a data factory. Or, ah, this industr…”
McCormick: DeepSeek represents doing the same thing cheaper, not a qualitative leap
“My DeepSeek point is that, like, This, like, crack team that figured out all these algorithms, breakthroughs, and whatever, essentially just figured out how to do the same thing cheaper. Like, there hasn't been any leap that I've seen that I've been like, yeah…”
O'Shea: AI models are a commodity product with zero customer loyalty
“They're using it, like, it's, like, it's commodity business, we all know that. Like, we've known that from the beginning, so I don't know why we go through these circular phases of, like, thinking it's gonna change the world, and it's, like, a power law thing,…”
Rangwalla: AI Efficiency Breakthroughs Will Drive Adoption via Jevons Paradox
“If let's say that the deep seek moment that happened you know, last year, another moment like that happens where someone figures out a model that can do all the calculations with less power, less Semiconductors, less memory, all of that. If that happens, it is…”