The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
O'Shea: Carta data shows concentrated venture funds outperform broad portfolios
“Turns out highly concentrated funds, typically like 20 companies per portfolio. Outperforms spray and pray, but spray and pray looks pretty good.”
Molly O'Shea Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 35:54 Inside Thrive Capital: Investing in OpenAI, Wiz, Cursor, Nudge, Physical Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shea: 50% of LPs have stopped allocating to venture capital
“Carta put out a report a couple months ago on different LP trends, and about 50% are not allocating into venture anymore, and so that, that's being cut away.”
Molly O'Shea Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 12:54 How Vise Became a Unicorn With Just 40 Employees · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shea: Carta report shows 50% of LPs are exiting venture allocations
“Carta actually just put out a report, I covered it in Sorcery, that LPs are committing less to the category, about 50% are not going to be allocating to venture anymore.”
Molly O'Shea May 5, 2025 ▶ 9:26 Why Bucky Moore Joined $30 Billion AUM Megafund Lightspeed · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shea: Carta data shows 41% of Series A startups are AI
“Carta has some, like, incredible data on this that 41% of companies seen in Serie A, Series A are all AI, quote, unquote, AI companies.”
Molly O'Shea Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 23:54 How Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, & David Ulevitch Started a16z’s American Dynamism Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shea: Carta data shows median Series B to C gap is 18-24 months
“Did you know, by the way, on Carta, like, the median time to raise for a Series B to a Series C is 18 to 24 months?”
Molly O'Shea Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 34:47 Base Power Raises $1B led by Addition, with Trust Ventures, Lightspeed, a16z, Altimeter, Elad Gil · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
Ward: Private equity market size is 6-8x venture capital
“The market size of private equity is six to eight times the size of venture.”
Henry Ward Aug 6, 2025 ▶ 14:00 Carta CEO Henry Ward on Raising $1B, Path to ~$500M ARR, & the Move into PE · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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