The Ledger
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Ward: Startups are either execution-focused or multi-product innovators
“I think there's like two types of startups. There's innovation startups and execution startups. So an execution startup is like a rippling or a MongoDB, where it's just like, if you build a better database or a better HRIS system, you have line of sight to bil…”
Ward's AI rules: No prompt interfaces, must enable impossible experiences
“What I tell the team about how to build AI products is you got to follow two rules. One is differentiated customer experience that we couldn't do before AI existed. Like you do something for the customer that literally we could not have done a year ago. Just, …”
Ward: Strong sales teams can mask a lack of product-market fit
“One of the biggest mistakes that startups and CEOs when they launch new products make is they have such a great sales motion. They can push a product out to market that doesn't have a strong product market fit, but it feels like it does initially. And then it'…”
O'Shea: Carta data shows AI startups get a 30% Series A premium
“Carta just put out recent data in their fund performance report, and series A's are getting a 30% premium. What do they attribute that to? AI. So, AI companies get a 30% premium versus non-AI companies.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows concentrated venture funds outperform broad portfolios
“Turns out highly concentrated funds, typically like 20 companies per portfolio. Outperforms spray and pray, but spray and pray looks pretty good.”
Ward: Selling software to startups prepares companies to sell to anyone
“If you can build a software company selling to startups you can build a software company selling to anybody.”
Ward: VC has global network effects, while PE is strictly local
“What makes venture unique as an asset class for us is that it has what I'll call a global topology. You know, you bring a company on to Carta because all the investors are minority holders. They bring a bunch of investors. They bring 20 investors. And then tho…”
Ward: Carta will be synonymous with PE infrastructure in 3 to 5 years
“My expectation, my hope is in three to five years, how Carta is sort of synonymous with infrastructure for venture in three to five years, it'll be synonymous with infrastructure for PE.”
O'Shea: 50% of LPs have stopped allocating to venture capital
“Carta put out a report a couple months ago on different LP trends, and about 50% are not allocating into venture anymore, and so that, that's being cut away.”
O'Shea: Carta report shows 50% of LPs are exiting venture allocations
“Carta actually just put out a report, I covered it in Sorcery, that LPs are committing less to the category, about 50% are not going to be allocating to venture anymore.”
Ward: Startups must separate controllable alpha from market beta
“Alpha is what we consider things that we have control over, and beta is things that we don't. So beta is like market. You know, if we lose a customer because they're going out of business or, you know, the market's down, that's beta. You know, it affects our o…”
Ward: Carta expects to complete 2-3 M&A deals per year
“We'll probably do two or three deals this year, another two or three next year.”
Ward: Dominate ignored small markets, then expand concentrically
“And that's always been our thesis is start in small markets, win something that nobody else cares about, and then concentrically grow.”
Ward: Carta needs PE for $1B ARR, new assets for $3B
“If we get to a billion bucks, I think it's cause we caught fire in private equity. If we get to two to three billion bucks, it means we've gotten into other asset classes.”
Ward: Carta uses automated AI agents overnight to catch software bugs
“So now we have agents all night going through testing all the different possible things that a customer might do the next morning when they wake up, and then we catch the errors before they do.”
Ward: Internal product portfolio management operates like venture capital
“I think product portfolio management in companies is much like Venture Live.”
Ward: Private equity and credit will drive Carta's growth for next 2-5 years
“We're on the second half of an S-curve in venture, but the beginning of an S-curve in private equity and private credit. And that's driving a lot of the, I think the next two to five years of growth.”
Molly O'Shea says seed-to-Series A graduation rates hit record 13% low
“I actually just read a Carta report today. I don't know if you saw it, but the graduation rate from seed to Series A is now at an all-time low, and before it was like in a normal year, they'd say like, 20 to 25% graduation rate. Now it's at 13.”
O'Shea: Carta report shows AI Series A rounds get 30% premium
“Carta put out a recent report that Series A's that are AI enabled, or AI in their name, are getting a 30% premium.”
Carta Data Shows 30% Valuation Premium for Series A AI Startups
“There's also data in Carta that 30, that series A companies get a 30% premium on them compared to if they're AI versus non AI.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows 41% of Series A startups are AI
“Carta has some, like, incredible data on this that 41% of companies seen in Serie A, Series A are all AI, quote, unquote, AI companies.”
Carta data shows AI startups get larger valuation premiums at Series A
“There's some interesting Carta data around this cycle in AI, and there is a premium that AI native companies are getting, and it's more dramatic in the Series A and Series B.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows median Series B to C gap is 18-24 months
“Did you know, by the way, on Carta, like, the median time to raise for a Series B to a Series C is 18 to 24 months?”
Ward: Carta has 2,500 venture funds and 35,000 startups
“Yeah, about 2500 venture funds, about 35,000 startups.”
Ward: Carta is growing ARR by over 20% at scale
“And now we're, you know, 20 plus percent grower at scale.”
Ward: I spend half my time leading AI initiatives at Carta
“Today I spend half my time on product and the other half on AI projects at Carta and all the AI projects come in two forms. One is how do we use AI to build differentiated user experiences for our customers? So it's all in the product side. And then how do we …”
Ward: Carta pivoted from $6K startup deals to $1M PE software
“We started with a sales team that sold, you know, 6000 dollar cap tables to 24 year old founders in hoodies you know, in Soma. And now we're selling million dollar accounting solutions to middle aged CFOs in midtown.”
Ward: Private equity market size is 6-8x venture capital
“The market size of private equity is six to eight times the size of venture.”
Carta data shows early-stage tech acquisitions are up 200% year-over-year
“Essentially there's 200 plus companies in tech that are like seed all the way to series B that have been acquired year to date, which is up 200% year over year.”