why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
AppLovin halted investor relations for over a year during its market bottom
“We actually didn't do any investor relations for well over a year at the bottom, because what were we going to convey to investors is we're rebuilding our technology stock is dirt cheap, but nobody buys something that's dirt cheap.”
Disclosure
Gio: AppLovin is developing fully automated AI ad creative generation
“We have to create a tool that can fully automate everything. The other choice is you just create a tool that allows advertisers to interact with, to allow them to collaborate with the AI tool to create their own content. So right now we see that the second typ…”
Insight
Foroughi: Creative investment creates alpha when ad systems are fully automated
“The advertisers that invest in creative and are good at it, whether they're using AI tools to develop them or they're using people to develop them, can create lifts in an advertising system where everything else is automated.”
Insight
Foroughi: Unprofitable Advertising Companies Should Not Be in Business
“An advertising company, if you can't make money, then you probably shouldn't be in business. Doesn't make any sense, because you're trying to deliver value to advertisers, you get paid for the value you deliver, and in theory, that should generate you somethin…”
Disclosure
AppLovin strictly holds engineers accountable for any AI-generated code decisions
“You can use AI however you want.
But in the end of the day, you as a human is held accountable for every decision that your AI made for you.
So it is absolutely not acceptable when I come to an engineer and say, hey, why you did, why you implemented this syste…”
Disclosure
AppLovin operates with almost no product managers, relying entirely on engineers
“One of the cultural philosophies we had is almost no product management and have engineers that are competent enough about business problems to just write their own architecture, write their own product to solve business problems that maybe not even a business…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coatue's worst-case financial model for AppLovin showed at least 3x upside
“You literally could not make the discount cash flow analysis, in your worst case scenario, be less than like a three X.”
Disclosure
Foroughi: AppLovin engineers and interns can push code in first week
“So one of the things that's a little unique is like whether geo is an intern or a full-time employee just started maybe even right out of school they can push code within the first week of being here.”
Disclosure
Foroughi: AppLovin has no training manuals or formal onboarding
“We don't have the traditional training processes that bring people along. There's no training manual. There's no come in and, like, someone's gonna, like, tell you what to do.”
Assertion Partly supported
AppLovin generates over $7B EBITDA run rate with 75% cash conversion
“We probably on an EBITDA basis, I think we're over a seven billion dollar run rate, and we generate somewhere around 75% cash off the EBITDA dollar.”
Disclosure
Foroughi: AppLovin CEO avoids angel investing, conferences, and social media
“I'm not out there super active on social media. I'm not out there making a whole bunch of other investments. I'm not out there speaking at a lot of different conferences. I'm basically a hundred percent wired in to try to do the best job that I can with this.”
Assertion Partly supported
AppLovin dropped 92% post-IPO before rebounding to a $100B valuation
“We dropped 92% in the first 18 months of being public. That, that dream seemed very, very far away, but post-Axon, too, we recovered, and now we're a hundred-billion-dollar company.”
Assertion Supported
AppLovin CEO: Gio Ge built Axon 2 to replace outdated tech
“We had a model that powered our advertising business axon one model, and it was written on outdated machine learning techniques. And so we were looking for a researcher to come in and help us architect the axon two model, which we released. I don't know, proba…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Foroughi: Mobile gaming ad spend cannot support a $1T valuation
“The mobile gaming category is not big enough in terms of user acquisition dollars to support the type of cash flow we need to be valued at a trillion dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Foroughi: AppLovin users spend roughly 60 seconds actively playing mini-game ads
“The ads inside games are much more similar to what television is, but specifically for games, You have somewhere around 60 seconds that people sit on an ad, and they're not just sitting there doing nothing, they're playing mini games that we serve them. So the…”
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: AppLovin Vastly Outpaces Microsoft in Revenue Per Employee
“Applovin's revenue per employee is, like, huge delta between Microsoft. Microsoft is kind of, like, flatlined a little bit, but, like, that, that is, like, a true trend we're seeing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AppLovin cut its headcount from 600 to 400 and kept it flat
“I'd say the company's been around of 400 people for a while. And About two to three years ago, we probably cut it down from 600 to 400, and we haven't really changed all that much since, and people come and go, but that's what you got.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Former AppLovin CTO Basil personally wrote roughly 60% of the company's code
“Basel probably wrote, I don't know, 60% of the code of the company like himself.”