The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Clements: 7x more CFOs are telling developers to increase AI token spending
“We did this survey of developers, and we asked them how many of them had a CFO who was telling them to spend less on Consumption versus more, and we actually found that seven times more companies are being told to, like, let it rip and spin more.”
Miller: Accel moved slowly on AI apps due to foundation model risks
“We were admittedly slower than our peers on the application layer for AI because we were very worried about how fickle they were when the wakes of the models were getting wider and wider, and we spent a lot of time in infrastructure, and we're continuing to sp…”
Mathew: Accel now regularly invests $500M to over $1B per company
“Our first growth fund was four hundred and eighty million when we first joined. It is not unusual for us to invest five hundred million dollars into a company, actually to invest over a billion dollars into a company.”
Mathew: Supabase is growing 350% at hundreds of millions in scale
“So we can take Supabase, for example, which is the backend database to a lot of agent workflows and agent applications. That's growing 350% at hundreds of million dollars of scale, and they have virtually no salespeople. It's all inbound.”
Clements: Accel has assembled a $7 billion portfolio of AI investments
“So holistically, when we reflect on our work over the last couple of years, I think what we see is A seven billion dollar portfolio of really thoughtful, nuanced investments that we've selected very carefully.”
Clements: OpenAI and Anthropic parallel Facebook's platform era
“The thing that still kind of inspires us, you know, through the Facebook parallel was, it was like the first platform company that we saw. So all the companies As associates that we were building relationships with, we're figuring out how they could like build…”
Clements: Accel's $150M PIPE investment in Nebius is up 13x in 16 months
“16 months ago, a hundred and fifty million dollar investment that I think is up 13 x today, and the world is now awakened to this company and how special it could potentially be.”
Mathew: Supabase grew from under 1M to 9M developers in over a year
“They just crossed nine million developers You know, last week when we first invested, it had under a million developers, and that was at the beginning of last year.”
Clements: VCs must know who will win before the first meeting
“Like, you have to have an outside-in viewpoint on which company is going to win before you even get the first meeting, and then you have to really show up and add some value and you know, Convince this entrepreneur that there's a compelling reason to work with…”
Clements: Accel Doubled Down on Cursor as a Workflow Choke Point
“We were investors in cursor at the time, but we certainly saw a lot of, you know, cursor as a choke point for downstream workflow creation and downstream tool recommendation. That probably emboldened us to make our second investment in cursor.”
Miller: Accel Is Investing in Ex-xAI Inference Startup Radix Arc
“We are investing in pure play inference software providers like Ying and the team at Radix Arc that just came out of XAI. They're the inference team there.”
Miller: Being the first institutional investor was Accel's religion historically
“Up until about five to seven years ago, it was almost a religion here to be the first institutional investor into a company. And as a result, you're almost organizationally introverted. You're spending your time going and finding something that someone hasn't …”
Mathew: Accel modeled Facebook secondary investment at 5X upside
“And so I remember that partner meeting around the table saying, we actually think this could be a hundred billion dollar business or more that we could generate north of a five X. Lo and behold, that was way under shooting what the opportunity and the potentia…”
Mathew: Accel bought Facebook secondary shares around a $20B valuation
“We, so we initially invested in Facebook in 2005. We led the series A out of our early stage fund, and we created this growth vehicle in 2008. Miles and I joined in 2008 and 2009, and one of the first opportunities was to buy some Facebook secondary that came …”