The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mavrookas: Saronic will test a hypersonic missile before a manned Navy vessel
“We're actually going to be able to launch a hypersonic missile off of the back of Marauder, which is an autonomous ship, Before the Navy completes their first test of a hypersonic missile off of a manned vessel.”
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Jain: Open source models will dominate AI inferencing within two years
“Well, I think open source models are going to dominate AI inferencing. You know, you'll see in the next two years, we'll shift to where's almost no open source to where's going to be almost all open source.”
Cook: Keyboards and mice will be obsolete within five years
“We're gonna look back in five years and say, of course we're not using keyboards and mice anymore. Like, we've come up with a better way to interact with intelligence.”
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
Singerman predicts proposed wealth taxes will go national across the US
“Oh, that's definitely going national.”
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Agrawal: Humans Will Not Need to Work to Earn a Living by 2035
“I suspect in five to 10 years, we wouldn't have to work to earn a living anymore.”
Power: Demographic decline will pressure Xi Jinping to act before 2037-2042
“We just have to last till about 2037, 20 42, and then kind of overnight China's working population will cut in half, and then they can try again in another thousand years. So that will put a lot of pressure in our opinion on Xi to actually do something, becaus…”