The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 261 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan terminated Podium integration impacting 1,000 shared customers
“That worked great for years until Service Titan shut them off the other day, shut them off after all these years with a thousand joint customers.”
Lemkin: Cerebras is going public at $40B with two Middle Eastern customers
“Like Cerebus is going public, I think today at like a forty billion dollar market cap. It has some interesting customers, but basically it only has two customers today in the Middle East that you've never heard of.”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Net Tech Hiring Is Now Negative in Austin and Miami
“SF, almost all the hiring and net hiring in tech is in SF. It's twice New York. And basically after SF in New York, there is no net hiring. It's net negative in Austin. It's net negative in Miami.”
Lemkin: Blended VC rolling internal rates of return are negative
“Everyone is full of shit in venture on Twitter. Oh, I'm all my investments are so great. I'm such a genius. I own point. Oh, one percent of this unicorn. I made so much money, but the real IRRs, when you blend it all together, they're negative.”
Lemkin: All Top US Tech Companies Are Run by Asian/Indian Americans
“All the top US tech companies are run by Asian Americans or Indian Americans. All of them, right? Am I, are there any that aren't? AMD, Microsoft, Google, who am I missing?”
Lemkin: Marc Benioff Is Repeating His Past Mistake by Cutting Sales
“I mean, Mark Benioff in his book wrote his biggest mistake in the last downturns was cutting sales. And what did he just do? Cut sales. So we're all, he's making them, he's making the same mistake three times.”
Lemkin: SaaS giants like Zendesk and Intercom offer shitty phone support
“Even support companies do shitty support, and I go on, and I play, I go on to all the leaders, the, I, okay, does, do all the leaders in SaaS, do the Zendesk and the intercoms, and do they answer their phone and say, none of them do either, right?”
Lemkin claims Replit grew from $2M to $500M revenue in two years
“Replit went from two million to five hundred million in two years.”
Lemkin: Global Software Spend Growth Is Accelerating to 15%
“That's going from 12.8% growth in all software spend last year, which was high. To 15% growth this year. It is accelerating.”
Lemkin: No master orchestration product exists for multi-vendor AI agents
“We haven't found anyone that can integrate Asian force artisan qualified Monaco. Momentum. Attention. Attentive. Like we don't, there's nothing out there today, even with Tentay, which we built ourselves that at some magical API or other level can integrate ev…”
Lemkin: Mobile app creation quintupled in late 2025 due to vibe coding
“At the end of last year, just all of a sudden the number of mobile apps like quintupled at the end of last year because of vibe coding, and it's just starting.”
Lemkin: Salesforce Replaced Up to 4,000 Support Staff With Internal AI
“You know, Mark Benioff said, even at Salesforce, they're growing, they're adding more headcount in sales and marketing, but I think he's, I know the numbers, I think three or 4000 folks in support, they already replaced with AI and their own AI and support Cog…”
Lemkin: Replit will hit $250 million in revenue this year
“Look at Repli where we just did a whole SK with them. There's zero to two hundred and fifty million already this year.”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs will reach $300 million in revenue this year
“The tools are either so disruptive, like a cursor or replica or lovable or 11 labs will go from like almost nothing to three hundred million this year.”
AI-Native Burn Multiples Fall to 0.4x at $100M ARR
“At a hundred million ARR, the burn multiple falls to 0.4 X for AI native companies versus 1.6 for classic SAS companies. They're four times more efficient in adding ARR.”
Lovable Is Scaling Toward $100M ARR With Only 45 Employees
“Lovable getting to a hundred million with 45 employees.”
Lemkin: Replit's AI panicked and deleted SaaStr's entire database
“Replit said I made a catastrophic error. I deleted your database. I panicked. The AI said I panicked when it appeared empty and deleted everything, deleted thousands and thousands of entries.”
Jason Lemkin: Median VC returns trail the NASDAQ and fail to double
“The median returns of venture are not as good as NASDAQ. The average VC doesn't even double their investors' money and it takes 15 years.”
Lemkin: Digital AI sales engineers will soon join live sales calls
“I think A digital SE like this is Brian Halligan's digital one on Delphi is going to come to the zooms. The human it's a person is going to be there. And I brought this up and Dara said, give me another release and this will be full duplex. Like my AI and Bria…”
Lemkin: PagerDuty added only one net new customer over the past year
“PagerDuty is coming up on five hundred million in revenue a lot, but growth has slowed to 10%. But the toughest number, and there's more companies like this out there today than is discussed, zero percent net new customer growth. This last quarter, they announ…”
Lemkin: Enterprise AI drives all current growth in B2B cloud budgets
“All the growth in cloud budget and B to B budget is for AI. Some of it's sure for AI native platforms, some of it's for other things, but all this AI budget is basically in the enterprise. Okay. That's where you see the growth. It's all enterprise.”
Lemkin: SaaS spending is accelerating, up 20% this year
“If you look at Gartner or anyone, SaaS spending overall is accelerating. It's up 20% this year, which is more than last year on both the percentage and of course, an absolute basis.”
Lemkin: SaaS vendors promise AI can cut 30% to 50% of staff
“Everyone in post sales, Salesforce, Intercom, Zendesk, Gorgeous, on and on. They are promising you can eliminate. 30 to 50% of your humans in support with AI. They're promising it today.”
Lemkin: The Majority Of SaaS Companies Moved Customer Success Under Sales
“Churn zero did a survey gains. I did a survey. They're both on Saster. I'm sure hook would give you similar data. The majority of SAS teams have moved CS into sales, the majority.”
Lemkin: Vista Equity Partners is writing its $3.5B Pluralsight investment to zero
“Vista, which is one of the two or three biggest folks that buy SaaS companies, Vista, Tomo Bravo, a few others, they bought Pluralsight. They're writing the entire 3.5 billion investment to zero.”
Lemkin: Majority of surveyed sales professionals secretly work multiple jobs
“I did a survey on LinkedIn a couple of months ago and asked like over 2000 sales professionals. The majority said they're working more than one job. The majority.”
Lemkin: Most VC firms underperform the NASDAQ
“It is a brutal, terrible industry where if you actually saw the numbers, most VC firms underperformed NASDAQ.”
PLG Leaders Like Asana Do Not Have Lower Sales And Marketing Costs
“If you look at the PLG leaders in SAS and cloud, they're wonderful companies. But the Asana's and the others that they're their cost of sales to marketing isn't lower than the folks that are purely sales led.”
Lemkin: Public SMB SaaS companies exclude their smallest customers from NRR reporting
“Almost all public companies that sell the SMBs, like exclude their smallest customers from NRR.”
Lemkin: Adobe Sign lost 50% market share after removing viral free conversion
“And when we, almost a week after I left after acquisition, that got ripped out of the product, the whole free thing, the whole free conversion. And because it didn't help anyone there, But then over the next three years, there may be a variety of reasons, mark…”
Lemkin: Palantir Flipped from 18% to 70% Software Revenue Year Before IPO
“Palantir was like 18% software until the year before their IPO, and they flipped to like 70 in one year.”
Lemkin: Thoma Bravo's latest fund is still at negative IRR
“Tomo Bravo is incredible, but their last fund is, is, it's J curve S, but it's still negative IRR.”
Lemkin: Public SaaS multiples will rebound 20% to 40% by late 2023
“And so I'm pretty bullish at the end of this year. I'm bullish that multiples will be up somewhere between 20 and 40%, and I believe that will lead to a rush to deploy capital, but for founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021.”
Lemkin: B2B SaaS Startups Will Avoid Widespread Layoffs Due to Cash Reserves
“I don't think there's going to be very many layoffs or issues and B to B companies because they're very well funded.”
Lemkin: Top VCs read every cold email and decide within a week
“Every single one of them said they read every single cold email they get, and every single one of them invests in one week.”
Lemkin: Founders should model a 50% drop in VC deals and funding
“I think for founders and other folks that are on this, I would model today, 50% decline in the number of companies that get funded and 50% decline in the dollars that go out there.”
Lemkin: Podium generated over $100M in AI agent revenue
“When Podium went, became agentic about a year half ago and crossed a hundred million of agent revenue, the agents for the same customers, for the same HVAC guys and other trades, the agent all of a sudden could do a lot more than get a lead.”
Lemkin: Twilio's growth rebounded to over 20% due to AI agent APIs
“And to me, Twilio is another example. It almost died. It's growing four percent. Now it's growing over 20% because the API worked with agents.”
Lemkin: Mailchimp's revenue dropped nearly 20 percent last year at Intuit
“Mailchimp's revenue fell almost 20% last year at Intuit.”
Lemkin: Cloudflare Laid Off 20% of Workforce Despite Crushing Financial Numbers
“And they did one of the first mass layoffs of a company doing really, really well. So they let off 20% of their workforce, even though they're crushing all their numbers.”
Lemkin: Public Software Stocks Trade at S&P 500 Discount for First Time
“Public software stocks, for the first time ever, are trading at a discount to the overall S&P.”
Lemkin: Palantir Accelerated to 85% Growth; Karp Projects Over 100%
“Palantir, going from 27% growth just two and a half years ago to 85% growth today. 85%. Alex Karp said in the last earning call he's projecting over a hundred percent growth at their scale.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable share similar size and growth rates
“So it's funny, as a case study, Lovable and Replit, like, they're arch and arch competitors. They're about the same size, same growth, same everything, same, but they started totally differently.”
Lemkin: Descript reached $50M in revenue before CEO stepped down
“But, and it just makes me sad because they got to fifty million in revenue. And it got hard. The CEO stepped down, gave the keys to his VP of product, left the company because it got hard.”
Lemkin: Benioff Stated Envy of Palantir's Deal Size and FDE Model
“When Mark Benioff came on the TwentyVC with me and Maureen Harry, he said, my number one wish, my number one thing I'm jealous of Palantir's is one, their deal size. But two, I wish I could give everyone an FDE before I had to charge them.”