why aren't all 60 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Net Tech Hiring Is Now Negative in Austin and Miami
“SF, almost all the hiring and net hiring in tech is in SF. It's twice New York. And basically after SF in New York, there is no net hiring. It's net negative in Austin. It's net negative in Miami.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: SaaS vendors promise AI can cut 30% to 50% of staff
“Everyone in post sales, Salesforce, Intercom, Zendesk, Gorgeous, on and on. They are promising you can eliminate. 30 to 50% of your humans in support with AI. They're promising it today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Top VCs read every cold email and decide within a week
“Every single one of them said they read every single cold email they get, and every single one of them invests in one week.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Public Software Stocks Trade at S&P 500 Discount for First Time
“Public software stocks, for the first time ever, are trading at a discount to the overall S&P.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Sierra and Intercom's Finn Scaled to $100M in Revenue
“Sierra went from nothing to a hundred million in one year, Decagon, lots of others. Intercom was just here, Finn. They, their AI products at a hundred million right after the company growth.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: AI presentation platform Gamma will reach $80 million in revenue in 2024
“We read about gamma and we love gamma for AI presentations, one to eighty million that we'll do this year, but it was founded in 20, 20. So it was five years to one and then one to 80 this year.”
Assertion Partly supported
AI Now Accounts for 70% to 80% of All Venture Capital
“And it is 70, 80% of all venture capital.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Datadog Manages All DevOps for OpenAI and Accelerated Growth
“Datadog has accelerated. Because it sells to all those leaders because it does all DevOps for open AI.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Replit grew from $1M to $160M in revenue this year
“And I would say Replit, which I use is the nerdiest of them because I think because it started as an idea, a platform for developers 10 years ago, almost 10 years ago, and then blew up as a prosumer platform this year, going from one to one hundred and sixty m…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Cloud security company Wiz sells entirely through partners
“If your ecosystem is in any way partner-driven, and you'll see, if you go super, if you go, like, into security or enterprise, sometimes it's a hundred percent. Wiz is all partners.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Top 10% of Sales Reps Close 65% of Deals (Clari Data)
“Clary just published this data. Maybe you saw it too, right? I always knew this, but man, this is stark. Clary's, Clary, I think it was like a million opportunities or something. The top 10% of reps close 65% of deals.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Per-seat pricing was under 50% of SaaS revenue historically
“And it turns out going back to the beginning per seat was less than 50% of the SaaS revenue. When you add in API pricing, other pricing, just because we think everyone talks about blah, blah, blah, Salesforce, it doesn't mean it's most of software. And so it's…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: UiPath Grew 20% While Adding Zero Net New Enterprise Customers
“Last quarter UiPath. Its growth crashed, but it still grew 20 something percent, but it had no net new customers. It started the quarter with the same number of customers that even UiPath. How'd they do it? They drove their five, their customers up to five mil…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Public SaaS profitability gains came from leaning on customer base, not sales efficiency
“Every single public company is radically more efficient than 18 months ago. They all were unprofitable, and now they're profitable, just cash flow positive, or positive operating margins. But we didn't get better at sales and marketing. We just leaned on our b…”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $200M in revenue and will IPO next year
“Second one, Algolia, worth three billion, doing over two hundred million, we'll IPO next year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Most SaaS companies hit market bottom in Q1 or Q2 2023
“For most folks in Sass and Cloud, it was the around, sometime around the first or second quarter of this year, and they bounced off the bottom.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Iconiq Growth Did Zero Deals in 2022 and Five in 2023
“Iconic growth... Did zero deals last year. Zero. One of the best growth funds. They did five this year”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: 70% of Salesforce's new bookings come from existing base
“70%. 70%. That's the whole story. Think about that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: 25% of BVP Cloud Companies Grow 100%+ at $100M ARR
“In the BVP Cloud, which I think maybe LaunchSharkly was in, 25% of them are growing more than a hundred percent at a hundred million ARR.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Klaviyo captured approximately 80% market share in e-commerce marketing
“That's a brutal oversimplification, but if HubSpot, there's a parallel universe for me to be in e-commerce and Klaviyo had like, 80% market share.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Adobe Acquired SEMrush for $1.9B at Just 3x Forward Sales
“So they buy them for 1.9 billion. It sounds like a lot, but it's only three times the next 12 months sales, even with a huge premium.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: SaaStr LinkedIn Poll Found Only 2% Make AI SDRs Work
“Tomas Tungas came and said he did this survey and no one could get them to work. I didn't have an opinion, but I did it on our LinkedIn poll. We had 3000 folks. Only two percent folks said they get the AISD work.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Enterprise AI Drives Palantir's Re-Acceleration at $3.5B Revenue
“Palantir is re-accelerating at an incredible rate at three and a half billion in revenue, all driven by enterprise AI deals.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: There have been only five B2B IPOs since 2021
“We've had five IPOs in B to B since 2021.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Customer Support SaaS Platforms Are Converging on Per-Resolution Pricing
“Even in this sort of odd per resolution model in, in post sales support. I think everyone, Zendesk, intercom, customer, gorgeous, dial, even dial pad, even in other areas, I think they all converging on the same model.”
Assertion Partly supported
BILL has roughly 80% gross margins compared to Shopify's 50%
“It took forever, but as a result, you've got, you have, like, 80% gross margins. Shopify is like 50, toast is 30.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: ZoomInfo's net revenue retention for tech customers dropped to 85%
“ZoomInfo's tech NRR is about 85% now. About 85%. Down from triple digits to 85%.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Fastly generates $500M revenue but grows customers by only 1%
“Fastly is pretty, is a pretty enterprise CDN at five hundred million in revenue. It still gets more money out of its customers as they route more content through their network, but they're only growing customers one percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Dropbox trades at only 2x ARR despite generating huge cash flow
“Dropbox, 2.5 billion growing six percent. That's not a growth company anymore, is it? It's fallen to the single digit. That's 33% margins. It generates almost a billion of cash, but Wall Street doesn't care. Back out all of its cash. It's only trading at two X…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: ZoomInfo's annual growth collapsed from 59% to 9% in one year
“ZoomInfo, ZoomInfo went from 59% growth last year to nine percent in one year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Klaviyo is the only SaaS IPO since HashiCorp in December 2021
“They're the only SAS IPO of the last two years. The only SaaS IPO since Hashi Corp in December of 2021.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: ZoomInfo reached over $1B in revenue while bootstrapped
“ZoomInfo is at a billion-something revenue who's bootstrapped. He did it himself as a first-time founder from the dirt with no money.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: Greenhouse will probably IPO in two years
“Fourth one is Greenhouse, which is over there, ok? They're doing hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, and will probably IPO in two years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Five of my first six venture investments became unicorns
“Like, you know, the first four investments eventually became unicorns, five out of the first six.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $100M in revenue with growth accelerating at 60%
“And they just crossed a hundred million accelerating, okay, at about 60% growth.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Most enterprises have over 1,000 cloud apps deployed
“Most enterprises have over a thousand cloud apps deployed, right? Most departments have over a hundred”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Replit deploys an OpenAI-powered Architect sub-agent for big features
“We actually get an extra bonus model because when Claude on Opus talks to Replit on Sonnet, if it's a big feature, Replit brings in a sub-agent called the Architect. And the Architect, it turns out, runs on Codex and OpenAI.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: October 2025 Hit a Three-Year High in Unicorn Funding
“October, 20, 25 was the highest on the right. The highest valuation total capital raised by new unicorns in three years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Eventbrite's 1x Revenue Acquisition by Bending Spoons Included 50% Premium
“Like, even with Eventbrite selling at one X today, I think it was still like a 50 or 60% premium that Bending Spoons had to pay.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Box, HubSpot, and Shopify IPO'd at roughly $800M valuations
“When Rory invested in box with Aaron, when Rory's invested in HubSpot, those are pretty good ones. Shopify. These guys all IPO'd around a hundred million in revenue growing really fast off in 50, 60, 80% at like eight hundred million valuations.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Recent B2B IPOs like Klaviyo and Rubrik reached $500M revenue
“All the IPOs that we've had in B to B recently, Klaviyo, one stream rubric that was here on, they're all five hundred million growing 50%.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Average Public SaaS Growth Dropped from 70% in 2021 to Teens
“The average public SaaS company in twenty-twenty-one grew 70%. Public. Public. The average public company SaaS company now is growing in the teens.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Zylo data shows zero net apps added to enterprise stacks
“There's Salesforce charging two bucks, but this was, there was one on the bottom right is the latest data from Zylo and they're all fairly consistent, which is basically over the last year, people didn't add any net apps. They didn't add any net apps to their …”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: HubSpot, Asana, and Monday Generate Roughly 50% of Revenue Outside US
“50% of many cloud leaders revenue is outside of the U S more than 50% of HubSpot's revenue is outside of the U S almost. Asana's revenue about 50% of Monday's revenue is outside the U S”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Veeva Systems raised $3M and reached a $34B valuation
“They raised three million and are worth thirty-four billion.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Zoom Stalled For Three Years After Hitting $4B In 2021
“Zoom in one year went from one to four billion in revenue from whatever mid-twenty-twenty-twenty-twenty-one went from one to four billion from twenty-twenty to twenty-twenty-one. Anyone know what Zoom's revenue is today? Four billion. So one year quadrupled an…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Slack And HubSpot Recently Executed Their First Historical Price Increases
“Slack did its first price increase in history at eight months ago. I did a blog post. Every single leader in SAS that hadn't done a price increase did it. HubSpot did too.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Veeva raised only $3M and is worth $35B
“Viva is a vertical SaaS company. Only raised about three million and is worth thirty-five billion today.”