why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: All Top US Tech Companies Are Run by Asian/Indian Americans
“All the top US tech companies are run by Asian Americans or Indian Americans. All of them, right? Am I, are there any that aren't? AMD, Microsoft, Google, who am I missing?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Mobile app creation quintupled in late 2025 due to vibe coding
“At the end of last year, just all of a sudden the number of mobile apps like quintupled at the end of last year because of vibe coding, and it's just starting.”
Assertion Contradicted
AI-Native Burn Multiples Fall to 0.4x at $100M ARR
“At a hundred million ARR, the burn multiple falls to 0.4 X for AI native companies versus 1.6 for classic SAS companies. They're four times more efficient in adding ARR.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: The Majority Of SaaS Companies Moved Customer Success Under Sales
“Churn zero did a survey gains. I did a survey. They're both on Saster. I'm sure hook would give you similar data. The majority of SAS teams have moved CS into sales, the majority.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Majority of surveyed sales professionals secretly work multiple jobs
“I did a survey on LinkedIn a couple of months ago and asked like over 2000 sales professionals. The majority said they're working more than one job. The majority.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Public SMB SaaS companies exclude their smallest customers from NRR reporting
“Almost all public companies that sell the SMBs, like exclude their smallest customers from NRR.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Palantir Flipped from 18% to 70% Software Revenue Year Before IPO
“Palantir was like 18% software until the year before their IPO, and they flipped to like 70 in one year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Public SaaS multiples will rebound 20% to 40% by late 2023
“And so I'm pretty bullish at the end of this year. I'm bullish that multiples will be up somewhere between 20 and 40%, and I believe that will lead to a rush to deploy capital, but for founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: B2B SaaS Startups Will Avoid Widespread Layoffs Due to Cash Reserves
“I don't think there's going to be very many layoffs or issues and B to B companies because they're very well funded.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Founders should model a 50% drop in VC deals and funding
“I think for founders and other folks that are on this, I would model today, 50% decline in the number of companies that get funded and 50% decline in the dollars that go out there.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Mailchimp's revenue dropped nearly 20 percent last year at Intuit
“Mailchimp's revenue fell almost 20% last year at Intuit.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: AI SDR startups like Artisan and Clay start at $100K
“Startups like artisan and qualified and clay, they're expensive, man. They're like a hundred grand to start.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Half of Venture Capital Dollars Go to Just Four Deals
“Half of all the venture capitalists here is going into four deals.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Sierra grew from $1M to $100M revenue in a year
“Sierra just said they went from one to a hundred million in a year. Brett Taylor, ex, you know, ex CTO of Facebook, co-CO of Salesforce, just going out to people and saying, you can replace a lot of your support teams with AI.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Contact center vendors saw 20% seat reductions in one year
“If you look at pure play contact center vendors, right, a lot of them have seen 20% seat reductions in a year due to AI. 20% across the board, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: The Current Tech IPO Bar Is $200M ARR Growing 40%
“To IPO today, you've got to be doing at least two hundred million growing at least 40%.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Algolia, Talkdesk, Greenhouse, or SalesLoft will likely IPO in 2024
“We had a panel of Algolia, Talkdisk, Greenhouse, and I think SalesLoft, they're all at two hundred million and at least three of them, I think, will IPO next year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Shopify data showed the pandemic software surge ended by summer 2020
“The twenty-twenty-one buying boom didn't end until Q one or Q two of twenty-twenty-two, but that's because they're a lag. If you go back and look, for example, at Shopify data and Shopify was very public. Shopify said in the summer of twenty-twenty, this is ov…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Almost 1,000 Unicorns from 2021 May Never Go Public
“And there's almost a thousand of these unicorns from 20, 21 waiting to possibly never go public.”
Assertion Contradicted
AI Venture Funding Hit $377B in the First Half of the Year
“Last year was three hundred and sixty three billion, which was a massive jump from 20, 23, as you can see, but already this year, It's exceeded all of last year, just in the first six months alone, three hundred and seventy seven billion in the first six month…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: There have only been four SaaS IPOs since 2021
“There's only been four SaaS IPOs since twenty-twenty-one since there's only been four.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: WebEx reached $1B ARR before Salesforce
“You know, WebEx was the first billion dollar ARR SaaS company that blew up even before Salesforce.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Nearly 70% of Shopify merchants use Klaviyo
“Klaviyo owns marketing. About almost 70% of everyone on Shopify uses Klaviyo.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Public SaaS shifted to 15-20% operating margins in 18 months
“Everyone, every public company two years ago had -10, I don't know what Vimeo's was, -12 operating margins. In 18 months, they went to 15 or 20.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: ServiceTitan will probably be the first SaaS IPO of 2024
“I think that'll be the first SAS IPO of 20, 24.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Accel Growth made just one investment in 2022
“Accel Growth did one investment last year, 30 something the year before.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Salesforce Experienced Zero Customer Churn During the 2008 Financial Crisis
“There was no churn in 2008, 2009. There was none. But there, but NRR shrunk, right? But there was no churn. There was no churn in the worst downturn of my lifetime.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Klarna Trades Down 48% From Its IPO Price
“Klarna IPO got out. I think it's down 48% as of today from its IPO.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Revenue Per Employee Up 2.6x at HubSpot Since 2021
“Since 2021, this is their efficiency ratio, their revenue per employee. HubSpot up 2.6 X, even Salesforce up 2.2 X.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: HubSpot now sells more CRM than marketing software
“They now sell more CRM than marketing.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Klaviyo generates 40% of its $1B revenue via agencies and partners
“Clayville gets 40% of its one billion in revenue through agencies and partners.”
Assertion Contradicted
Veeva Systems reached a $35B valuation raising just $3M in capital
“Peter Gassner, who is the founder of Viva, which is worth thirty-five billion. It only raised three million in primary capital.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Zoom revenue grew from $1B to $4B in a single year
“You know, we saw the biggest with Zoom, which went from one to four billion in one year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Samsara hit growth low in Q2 2022 and re-accelerated for four quarters
“They hit it, actually, in Q-two of twenty-twenty-two, where this high flyer's growth sort of came down to earth. They stopped accelerating growth. But what happened the last four quarters? Slow re-acceleration, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Total SaaS spending is 100x larger today than in 2014
“But SAS is literally, we should do the math. It's gotta be a hundred times bigger in terms of spend, right? Just think about that's a decade of 20 to 30% annual growth compounding.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: UiPath Shifted From $400M Loss to Near Breakeven in One Year
“UiPath went from losing four hundred million in a year to being almost breakeven the next year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: HubSpot's Service Hub reached $100M ARR growing at 50%
“Service hub, you've got a hundred million dollar business growing 50%, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Bill.com is worth around $25 billion
“Build.com was worth something like twenty-five billion dollars today, but it took a long time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: David Hornik's First Investment at August Capital Was Splunk
“David Hortick from August capital. His first investment was Splunk.”