The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
David Sacks: Seed-stage startup mortality rate will reach roughly 80%
“Well, I would say that the mortality rate on seed right now is very high. You know, I think it's probably going to be like, 80%.”
David Sacks: Big tech will own AI infrastructure; startups are M&A targets
“Ultimately, my view is that infrastructure can be owned by the big tech companies, and Those mainly are plays for a good M&A exit.”
David Sacks: Many 2021-funded startups will fail or restructure by 2025
“There's still, I think, you're still gonna see over the next year or two a lot of companies, you know,
Run out of money and die, or have to take down rounds or, you know, restructure.”
David Sacks: Expect widespread vendor consolidation as enterprise buyers cut costs
“We thought there were five or six different categories of, you know, sales enablement. They're all now trying to get into each other's business. And buyers are starting to sharpen their pencils and say, well, we just need one of these. And I think that's gonna…”
Sacks: There will be an AI co-pilot for every professional job category
“I think there's going to be a co-pilot for every professional job category.”
David Sacks: In 2H 2022 every board meeting was re-forecasting down
“It wasn't until the second half of twenty-twenty-two that every board meeting I was at was, like, a exercise in re-forecasting down.”
David Sacks: Expect a wave of commercial real estate bankruptcies by 2025
“Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Siri bankruptcies in the next 18 months.”
Sacks: Average SaaS Company at IPO Has $100M ARR and 1,000 Employees
“We know based on publicly available data that that at IPO, that the average sort of SaaS company at IPO has about a thousand employees and about a hundred million of ARR. So that ends up being about a 100,000 dollars of ARR per employee, and we can kind of wor…”