The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Clayton: Annual SaaS IPO capacity is capped at 20 companies
“And only 20 SaaS companies per year can actually make it public. We don't think this number is going to go higher than this anytime soon.”
Clayton: Modern SaaS IPOs demand $400M ARR and 30% growth
“We think that you need to be at least four hundred million of ARR. You have to be growing at least 30% a year. You're probably going to be worth three to five billion dollars and trade anywhere from that eight to 12 X range.”
Clayton: SaaS companies cannot expect public valuations above 10x ARR today
“And regardless of private market valuation, at least in today's interest rate environment, companies cannot expect to be worth more than 10 times ARR.”
Clayton: Down-round IPOs do not matter long-term with durable growth
“And the down round IPO is actually irrelevant over the long term. You've seen companies like SPS Commerce that are up almost 20 X from when they went public because they grew durably over time.”
Clayton: Public SaaS companies beat and raise guidance 80% of the time
“Irrespective of all market conditions, 80% of the time, SaaS companies are beat, are beating current quarter guidance and raising the subsequent quarter guidance.”
Clayton: Top-quartile SaaS IPOs since 2018 averaged over $400M ARR and 60% growth
“A top four tile company since 2018 was over four hundred million of ARR, growing at almost 60%, worth about seven and a half billion dollars, and as you can see, had very strong metrics, and still took about 10 years for them to get there.”
Clayton: CrowdStrike sustained nearly 50% ARR CAGR post-IPO to $4B
“They've continued on a very high growth rate through 20 24 and have been growing at a 50%, almost a 50% ARR growth CAGR since going public in 2019, and they're approaching four billion dollars.”