The Ledger

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why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Gemini will capture oligopolistic foundation model profits.
“There's no doubt that a two-way or a three-way dominance of the foundation model category will be between OpenAI and Tropic and Gemini with maybe some other players. They will dominate that. They probably will have, you know, oligopolistic profits.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 15, 2026 ▶ 27:51 Software Isn't Dead. It's Gotten Harder with Scale Venture Partners' Rory O'Driscoll
Insight
Lemkin: Goal-seeking AI agents cut corners by doing minimal work
“Agents are goal-seeking, right? Most of them under the hood are clawed. It'll be more, we use Gemini ourselves too. We'll use more open ad. Most of them are clawed, but it doesn't matter. They're goal-seeking. And that still creates a certain laziness, which i…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 3:53 Managing 20+ AI Agents: Lazy Agents, Our $500K AI Bill, Stealth Churn & the Death of 60% Solutions
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